The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 17 December 2009

Date Issued: Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, December 17 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today with temperatures expected in the upper 50’s. north and lower 60s south Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s in central Oklahoma and in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the forecast period. Winds will be moderate today from the south switching late in the afternoon and overnight, coming from the north tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures in Texas today will be in the mid 50s from the border area with Oklahoma, south along the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Across the Plateau temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 60s.. There is a chance of rain, 20%-30%, along the Edwards Plateau edge communities this morning into the early afternoon . Moisture is moving north from the Gulf of Mexico into the area stretching as far north as Waco. Winds will begin today from the south at low to moderate levels across the region. Wind strength will decline overnight and switch from the south to the west and eventually from the north beginning tomorrow during the day and tomorrow night. Skies today will be in the east mostly cloudy to the west becoming partly cloudy to sunny west and south.. Sunny skies are expected to prevail across the region tomorrow with clouds building overnight Friday.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies will occur across the region today building to mostly cloudy tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s across Oklahoma today into the low to mid 30s tonight and then cooling tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s in central Oklahoma tomorrow and the lower 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain region. Winds will be moderate from the south today, turning overnight coming from the north as cooler air moves southward. Friday will be mostly cloudy to the north and partly cloudy southward with moderate northerly winds. Friday night temperatures will be back below freezing across central Oklahoma and into the low 30s across southern Oklahoma. Today, the trajectories move northward across central Oklahoma and Oklahoma City then onward to Kansas and western most Missouri at the upper levels. As the cold front moves in, at the ground winds will switch to a westerly direction from the south and move the lowest elevation winds eastward towards Tulsa.

OUTLOOK: *** ModerateThreat today; High threat tomorrow *** Moderateconditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions with partly cloudy skies and moderate wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s across the source area. Winds will decline overnight as temperatures dip into the 30s. Tomorrow will see mostly cloudy skies north with some break-up towards the south. Temperatures will cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s. With warmer conditions today then cooling tomorrow and partly cloudy skies, conditions for pollen release will be good today but marginal tomorrow. Moderate winds will blow from the south today then switch from the north tomorrow. It is expected that areas close to the pollinating trees will experience significant levels today, with entrainment and long-distance travel. The air is relatively stable so more pollen will move near the ground than getting entrained at higher levels. For these reasons Oklahoma City is expected to see high levels and Tulsa may experience moderate levels of pollen today. As the winds switch from the north overnight and into tomorrow the skies will cliear of pollen as it heads in a more

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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