The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today with temperatures in the 50’s north and lower to upper 60s south Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the lower 50s in central Oklahoma and in the mid 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Skies will be cloudy to partly cloudy today, sunny tomorrow and cloudy again tomorrow night. Winds will be moderate today from the northwest today and tomorrow decreasing in strength to light an variable tomorrow night. Temperatures in Texas today will be in the upper 50s from the border area with Oklahoma, and in the mid to upper 60s south across the Edwards Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 40s and 30s, then return to a similar range, 50s and 60s, on Saturday. Saturday night temperatures will cool by 5 to 10 degrees, dipping below freezing especially in areas to the west. Skies will be sunny across the eastern Edwards Plateau area and partly cloudy over the central and southwestern portion of the plateau today and tomorrow. Tonight partly cloudy skies will form across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau and will remain on Saturday Saturday night partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region. Foggy areas will be common along the eastern Edwards Plateau area this morning. Winds will be moderate , 10 to 15 miles per hour, from the north throughout the forecast period.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy to partly cloudy skies will occur across the region today but clearing to sunny conditions tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s across Oklahoma today into the mid 30s tonight and then cooling tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the mid 40s in central Oklahoma tomorrow and the lower 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain region. Winds will be moderate from the northwest today, as slightly cooler air moves southeastward. The atmosphere will be heavy and humid moving along the ground Saturday will be mostly sunny then clouding over Saturday night. Saturday night temperatures will be around the freezing level across Oklahoma. Today, the trajectories move southeastward across southeast Texas and western Louisiana toward the Gulf of Mexico.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Good conditions with partly cloudy skies and moderate wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s across the source area. Winds will remain moderate overnight as temperatures dip into the 30s. Tomorrow will see sunny skies with slightly cooler conditions. High temperatures will be in the lower 50s. With warmer conditions today, cooling tomorrow and partly cloudy skies clearing to sunny conditions tomorrow will result in good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Moderate winds will blow from the northwest today, tonight and tomorrow. It is expected that areas close to the pollinating trees will experience significant pollen levels today, with entrainment and long-distance travel reduced by the trajectories moving along the ground. The trajectories are moving away from major urban areas, however those along the pathway may see some effects.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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