The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today with temperatures in the 50’s north and lower to upper 60s south Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the lower 50s in central Oklahoma and in the mid 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Skies will be cloudy to partly cloudy today, sunny tomorrow and cloudy again tomorrow night. Winds will be moderate today from the northwest today and tomorrow decreasing in strength to light an variable tomorrow night. Temperatures in Texas today will be in the upper 50s from the border area with Oklahoma, and in the mid to upper 60s south across the Edwards Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 40s and 30s, then return to a similar range, 50s and 60s, on Saturday. Saturday night temperatures will cool by 5 to 10 degrees, dipping below freezing especially in areas to the west. Skies will be sunny across the eastern Edwards Plateau area and partly cloudy over the central and southwestern portion of the plateau today and tomorrow. Tonight partly cloudy skies will form across the western areas of the Edwards Plateau and will remain on Saturday Saturday night partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region. Foggy areas will be common along the eastern Edwards Plateau area this morning. Winds will be moderate , 10 to 15 miles per hour, from the north throughout the forecast period.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies becoming partly cloudy to the west will occur across central Texas today. Fog is expected this morning along the eastern and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the 50s to the north today and low to mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau area. Winds will be from the north and northwest at moderate strength, 5 to 10 miles per hour. Skies tomorrow will be sunny to mostly sunny with temperatures reaching again into the 60s. Saturday night skies will return to partly cloudy conditions with winds from the north and temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s. The air is mostly stable along the eastern areas of the Edwards Plateau and will remain so as the trajectories move to the southeast. Trajectories from the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will begin heavy and move along a stable pathway, but later today and tomorrow the air will become much more buoyant as the winds swirl over southwestern Texas and northern Mexico. Today, warm conditions and drying conditions will result in good conditions for pollen release and moderate conditions for entrainment and travel. With the northly winds the trajectories will remain in southern most Texas, south of the Edwards Plateau. The heavy air means that a substantial amount of the pollen will be removed from the air stream as it interacts with vegetation. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow as well. In areas where the trajectories are travelling will have a high threat.

OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Goodconditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Warming and dryer conditions will result in good conditions for pollen to be released from the trees. Moderate winds aid in the drying and eventual dispersal of the pollen within the atmosphere. The atmosphere in the eastern region of the Edwards Plateau area will be relatively heavy and move near the ground during the day today. Higher humidity will aid in reducing concentration levels as they move long distances. Across the western portion of the Edwards Plateau, the atmosphere will be dryer and significant amounts of pollen could move downwind. In this area the stable air will give way to more buoyant conditions late today and tomorrow. Conditions will remain stable over the next two days, but conditions for pollen to spread form the local areas where the trees will grow this afternoon and tomorrow. The chance of heightened levels tomorrow is again likely. Local dispersal should occur leading to spotty high concentrations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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