The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 19 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50’s north in Oklahoma and mid 50s to mid 60s from north to south in Texas. Skies will be partly cloudy today across Oklahoma and mostly sunny in northern Texas but only partly cloudy towards the southwest across the Edwards Plateau. The communities along the south and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny to sunny today. Winds across the region from Oklahoma to Texas will be from the north to northwest today and moderate ranging from 10 to 15 miles per hour in most localities, although the Plateau will experience slightly calmer conditions. Tonight the skies will clear in Texas but remain partly cloudy in Oklahoma. Temperatures will be in the 30s with warmer conditions in urban areas surrounding the Plateau versus more rural areas. In Oklahoma low temperatures are expected in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Winds will be light across the region starting to turn from the predominant northerly direction to a southerly direction for Sunday. On Sunday sunny conditions are expected across the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid to lower 60s across the area except for central Oklahoma which will be in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be moderate, 5 to 10 miles per hour, and from the south to southwest. The winds are expected to pick up Sunday afternoon and into the evening to moderate conditions. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau may see stronger gusts.

Trajectory weather: partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today but clearing to sunny conditions tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s from central Oklahoma southward today into the upper 20s and low 30s tonight and then warming Sunday into the upper 50s in central Oklahoma and lower 60s near the Texas border. Sunday evening temperatures will be in the 30s. Winds will be moderate from the northwest today, as slightly cooler air moves southeastward. Winds will decrease to light and variable overnight, then on Sunday will switch to moderate conditions from the south. The atmosphere will be relatively stable maintaining its elevation downwind both today and tomorrow. Today, the trajectories move southward across northern Texas, then as the winds switch they will come around and proceed north to northeasterly tomorrow. The trajectories tomorrow show a general loop from the Arbuckle north northeasterly eventually turning to a more eastward direction across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Good conditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. A moderate threat exists today with partly cloudy skies and moderate wind speeds, however temperatures will be cool during the day just getting into the lower 50s as a high temperature. Winds will drop to light and variable conditions overnight as temperatures dip into the 30s. Tomorrow will see sunny skies with warmer conditions. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s. With warm and sunny conditions tomorrow good conditions will exist for pollen release. Moderate winds will blow from the northwest today, dropping overnight and then gain strength from the south to southwest tomorrow. The atmosphere will be relatively stable both days. It is expected that areas close to the pollinating trees will experience significant pollen levels today, with entrainment and long-distance travel showing moderate conditions today improving to good conditions tomorrow. On Sunday the pathway will be to the east of Oklahoma City and south of Tulsa, but both areas may experience some pollen in their airstream. The trajectories are moving away from major urban areas, however those along the pathway may see some effects.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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