The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

Date Issued: 19 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 19 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50’s north in Oklahoma and mid 50s to mid 60s from north to south in Texas. Skies will be partly cloudy today across Oklahoma and mostly sunny in northern Texas but only partly cloudy towards the southwest across the Edwards Plateau. The communities along the south and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny to sunny today. Winds across the region from Oklahoma to Texas will be from the north to northwest today and moderate ranging from 10 to 15 miles per hour in most localities, although the Plateau will experience slightly calmer conditions. Tonight the skies will clear in Texas but remain partly cloudy in Oklahoma. Temperatures will be in the 30s with warmer conditions in urban areas surrounding the Plateau versus more rural areas. In Oklahoma low temperatures are expected in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Winds will be light across the region starting to turn from the predominant northerly direction to a southerly direction for Sunday. On Sunday sunny conditions are expected across the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid to lower 60s across the area except for central Oklahoma which will be in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be moderate, 5 to 10 miles per hour, and from the south to southwest. The winds are expected to pick up Sunday afternoon and into the evening to moderate conditions. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau may see stronger gusts.

Trajectory weather: Mixed mostly sunny and partly cloudy skies today will experience clearing tonight and sunny skies will prevail on Sunday. Temperatures in Texas will be in the mid-50s to the north and westward today, with most of the Edwards Plateau region getting into the 60s. Tomorrow 60s will prevail across the region. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 miles per hour on the Plateau and 10 to 15 miles per hour in the areas to the north and surrounding the Plateau. Overnight winds will begin to switch from the north to the south starting in the western Texas. By Sunday the prevailing winds will be moderate and from the south to southwest. Moderate winds will remain Sunday night under mostly clear skies across the region. Trajectories from Texas all begin moving towards the south on northerly winds today then as the winds begin to switch, coming around from the south, the trajectories reverse over the Plateau region and begin to move northward. Tomorrow winds will take on a more southwesterly direction thus the trajectories start to move more easterly towards southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. Today, warm and drying conditions will result in good conditions for pollen release and good conditions for entrainment and travel. The combination of clear skies and moderate winds should provide conditions that will result in the first region wide pulse of Juniperus ashei pollen this weekend. Because of humid conditions late in the week, tomorrow will likely be much heavier than today. For these reasons tomorrow will definitely see a high threat with good conditions for release and good conditions for entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Goodconditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Warming and dryer conditions will result in good conditions for pollen to be released from the trees todays and especially tomorrow. Moderate winds aid in the drying and eventual dispersal of the pollen within the atmosphere. The atmosphere in the eastern region of the Edwards Plateau area will be relatively stable during the day today, then become more buoyant tomorrow. Drying conditions will aid in increasing the concentration levels as they move long distances. We are at the beginning of the pollination season in most areas thus the number of trees with ripe cones may be limited, but the conditions look very good for pollen dispersal from those trees that are ready to go.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN - SATURDAY

JUNCTION - SATURDAY

SONORA - SATURDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY

AUSTIN - SUNDAY

JUNCTION - SUNDAY

SONORA - SUNDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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