The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

High

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, December 21 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south. In Oklahoma the winds will start strong today, moderate tonight and tomorrow then start to slacken tomorrow night. Tomorrow, winds across the southern Edwards Plateau will maintain their strength. Temperatures today and tomorrow will reach into the 50’s in central Oklahoma, into the lower 60’s both days in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas and the upper 60s and lower 70s across the Edwards Plateau region. Today will be relatively dry across the area. However, tomorrow high humidity with fog in along the Edwards Plateau edge communities will result in to a 20% to 30% chance of showers and heavy fog, especially in the morning. Tonight temperatures will stay in the 40’s in Oklahoma and range from the upper 40’s to the mid 50’s toward the south. Tuesday will be warmer with highs reaching into the 70s at most southerly locations and into the lower 50s and 60s for central and southern Oklahoma, respectively. Tuesday night will see cooling into the 40’s north in Oklahoma and from the mid 40’s across the Edwards Plateau into the mid to upper 50’s across central Texas.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies will occur region across Oklahoma today and tonight becoming mostly cloudy tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s today and cooling slightly tomorrow. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the mid 60s today and lower 60s tomorrow. A 20% chance of rain will occur tomorrow during the morning hours. Winds will be from the south across the region and moderate, 10 to 15 miles per hour. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight as temperatures dip into the 40’s. Skies will become mostly cloudy tomorrow as moisture moves in from the south. Temperatures will be in the lower 60s but with a chance of precipitation.. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move northward across central Oklahoma then on to Kansas, northwestern Missouri and into Iowa.. The air appears relatively bouyant at all levels. With warm conditions today pollen will move northward from the Arbuckle population.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow; Goodconditions for entrainment and transport today, poor conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions with heightened wind speeds but with partly cloudy skies will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. The atmosphere will be buoyant and pollen release along with entrainment and travel northwards is expected. Tomorrow will see skies cloudy with a chance of precipitation building towards the evening hours. Temperatures will remain in the lower 60s. The conditions tomorrow for pollen release are reduced and any significant precipitation should clear the skies. Depending upon the conditions in the morning limited pollen release may occur, however it should be restrained by deteriorating conditions. Therefore the forecast calls for a a high threat today and moderate threat tomorrow. Moderate winds and bouyant atmospheric conditions at the surface will results in a significant threat to downwind communities across central Oklahoma and to point northward.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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