The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 Decmber 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, December 21 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south. In Oklahoma the winds will start strong today, moderate tonight and tomorrow then start to slacken tomorrow night. Tomorrow, winds across the southern Edwards Plateau will maintain their strength. Temperatures today and tomorrow will reach into the 50’s in central Oklahoma, into the lower 60’s both days in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas and the upper 60s and lower 70s across the Edwards Plateau region. Today will be relatively dry across the area. However, tomorrow high humidity with fog in along the Edwards Plateau edge communities will result in to a 20% to 30% chance of showers and heavy fog, especially in the morning. Tonight temperatures will stay in the 40’s in Oklahoma and range from the upper 40’s to the mid 50’s toward the south. Tuesday will be warmer with highs reaching into the 70s at most southerly locations and into the lower 50s and 60s for central and southern Oklahoma, respectively. Tuesday night will see cooling into the 40’s north in Oklahoma and from the mid 40’s across the Edwards Plateau into the mid to upper 50’s across central Texas.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny skies will occur across Texas this morning with moderate to strong winds from the south and warm temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Strong winds will prevail in some areas , especially on the western region of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will build during the day in most areas. Overnight partly cloudy skies will fill in with the strong winds continuing. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s to the east and in the upper 40s to the west. Tuesday will be partly to mostly cloudy with fog and a 20% chance of precipitation in the edge communities around the eastern and southeastern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in most places in the lower 70s. Tuesday night mostly cloudy skies will remain with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s towards the east and in the mid to upper 40s in the western Edwards Plateau region. Tuesday night winds will begin to slacken into the moderate range. Winds will remain from the south at moderate levels to strong levels throughout the forecast period. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move northward across northern Texas into central and east central Oklahoma. Increased chance of precipitation to the north may result in the trajectories from today encountering high humidity and precipitation as they proceed northward tomorrow. The air appears relatively buoyant and may entrain pollen today, however conditions will be marginal as high humidity will dominate the region.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow; Very Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions today with strong winds and sunny skies early will occur today across the area. Conditions are ideal for pollen release and entrainment to the east, heavy atmospheric conditions will occur to the west for only moderate conditions for trnasport. However, during the late afternoon and into the evening conditions will begin to deteriorate and moisture moves into the region. Conditions will remain warm but skies will become partly to mostly cloudy tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. High humidity and the chance of rain to the north will dampen pollen release tomorrow and airborne pollen grains will be more apt to come out of the atmosphere, tending to cleanse the air as it moves downwind. The high humidity with cloudy skies result in only a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release on Tuesday. However, some local dispersal may occur leading to spotty high concentrations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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