The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 23 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today with temperatures expected into the 60’s to the north and from the upper 60s into the 70s towards the south. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will be the norm across the region and a significant chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms occurs region wide. On the Edwards Plateau the chance of precipitation is less especially towards the southwestern areas. Conditions will continue to deteriorate as a significant winter storm moves out of the west into the central and northern Great Plains where it is expected to intensify. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s in central Oklahoma and in the Arbuckle Mountain area today. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy today and tonight then some partial clearing is on tap for Thursday and Thursday evening. There is a significant chance of precipitation today, it increases tonight and still lingers into Thursday. By Thursday night skies should begin to clear. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s, with tomorrow’s expected high in the upper 30s to low 40s and then Thursday night diving into the mid to low 20s. Winds will be moderate from the southwest during the day today then switch from the northwest as the cold front associated with the weather system to the north moves through. Light and variable to moderate conditions will occur tonight with strong winds, 20 to 30 miles an hour, returning tomorrow night. Temperatures in Texas today will also be warm with highs expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s range. However skies will be cloudy to the north, thinning to partly cloudy conditions towards the southwest. The entire Texas region has a chance of rain today, with a greater threat towards the north. Winds will begin from the south to southwest, but as the front starts to pass to the north will switch, coming from the west. Overnight the chance of showers and rain increases across the region. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and winds will become moderate to strong starting from the west but eventually shifting to a northwesterly direction. On Thursday skies should begin to clear but with very strong winds across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the edge communities but stay in the 40s across the Edwards Plateau. Thursday night will be mostly clear with cold air settling in. Temperatures will be in the 20s on the Plateau and lower 30s at lower elevations surrounding the plateau.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies will occur across Texas with fog and drizzle this morning and a chance of rain today that ranges from 60% northward to 20% across the southwestern and western areas of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warm, ranging from the mid 70s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau, to upper 60s on the Plateau itself. Winds will be moderate from the southwest. Tonight the chance of rain increases as the cold from moves into the region. Winds will start to move coming from the west but maintaining moderate conditions but strengthening towards the west. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. On Thursday, the fast moving low pressure system to the north will have less of an influence on Texas weather, however cold air will have settled in. Skies will return to partly sunny to sunny conditions. High temperatures for Thursday will be in the upper 40s for most regions. The areas along the southern and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds, however will be moderate to strong, 15 to 25 miles per hour during the day. Thursday night will be cold with conditions close to freezing and below. ahead of the cold front moving southeastward across the region. Today ground level trajectories travel slightly northward before the northwest winds move into the area turning them towards the southeast. At upper levels of the atmosphere, the trajectories get caught in regional air movement towards the low pressure moving across the central plains over the next 48 hours. With warm conditions pollen may be released but with the heavy humid air it is not expected to be significantly entrained into the atmosphere. Any pollen that is entrained will move in heavy, humid atmosphere near the ground and could be rained out with the chance of showers and precipitation that occurs across the region. Any significant movement northward will eventually become influenced by the precipitation to the north in central Oklahoma and beyond. Today, conditions will be moderate as temperatures warm but tempered by cloudy skies, high humidity and the chance of rain throughout the area. Conditions will deteriorate through the night with increasing chances of precipitation and colder temperatures. tomorrow conditions will start clearing but colder conditions will prevail into the evening hours when below freezing conditions are expected for most areas.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Warm conditions but with cloudy skies and high humidity will occur with an increasing chance of precipitation today and tonight. Winds will be moderate from the south to southwest switching to a more westerly direction overnight. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s region-wide today. As the cold front moves across the region tomorrow temperatures will only warm into the 40s. On Thursday skies will begin to clear with mostly clear skies overnight. The region wide chance of precipitation along with cloudy skies and humid conditions results in only a moderate threat today and coupled with coming cold temperatures a low threat tomorrow. Heavy air at the surface with high humidity results in poor conditions for entrainment. Long distance transport is not expected to occur because of poor conditions at the surface. However, there is a chance of heightened levels from local dispersal events.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page