The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

THURSDAY / FRIDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, December 24 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will start to improve from yesterday and last nights rain and snow. Cold conditions will continue across the region today, however skies will be clearing and temperatures beginning to climb back to seasonal normals towards the south. The cold front that moved through yesterday and last night brought chili temperatures as Oklahoma will not get out of the 30s today. Skies will remain partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Winds will be from the northwest and very strong at 20 to 30 miles per hour and gust reaching into the 40 miles per hour range. Similar conditions will exist across northern Texas with snow and freezing rain towards the west in the panhandle region. Temperatures will be 5 degrees warmer, topping out in the low 40s. On the Edwards Plateau skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 40s today. The edge communities will see sunny skies and temperatures in the 50s in most localities. Across the region winds will be very strong, 20 to 30 miles per hour, from the northwest. Overnight, cloudy skies will be maintained to the north in Oklahoma to the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Southward skies will clear. Across the region expect low temperatures to dip well into the 20s, except for the southern most locations which will be in the low 30s. On Christmas Day, skies will remain partly cloudy north but mostly sunny across the rest of the area. The northern areas will remain in the 30s with winds from the west moderating in strength. To the south temperatures will be in the 40s across the Edwards Plateau and 10 degrees warmer heading toward the mid 50s along the eastern and southern edge of the Plateau. Christmas night will see chili conditions settle in once again with moderate winds mostly from the north.

Trajectory weather: Cold and damp will begin the day today as a cold front continues to fuel showers of rain and snow across northern Texas and Oklahoma. Cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will occur much of northern Texas and the Edwards Plateau area. The edge communities, such as Austin and San Antonio will begin to clear earlier than the other regions. Conditions will be cold today with most areas remaining in the 40s and the warmer edge communities in the mid 50s. Winds will be very strong, 20 to 30 miles per hour from the northwest. Tonight skies will clear and temperatures will plummet into the 20s across the Plateau and into the low 30s along the edge communities. Winds will remain moderate from the northwest. Christmas morning will be clear and mostly sunny across the region. Temperatures will remain in the 40s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to low 50s at the lower elevations surrounding the Plateau. Christmas night will see temperatures dive into the 20s and 30s once again. Skies will be clear, and wind strength will be dropping as the wind direction becomes relatively mixed. Friday night conditions will be settleing as the weather system currently affecting conditions moves to the east. Trajectories from Texas all begin moving towards the southeast on northerwesterly winds today, tonight and tomorrow. The cold, dense atmosphere moves all of the trajectories at ground level today and tonight. Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve and the atmosphere will become more stable. Today and tomorrow, cold conditions and recent precipitation will result in poor conditions for pollen release and entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cold and damp conditions will result in poor conditions for pollen to be released from the trees today and tomorrow. Strong winds will drive wind chills into the teens in most areas today, tonight and tomorrow. Pollen from the trees generally does not shed their pollen under such cold conditions. If pollen is available the air is very heavy today and entrainment will be limited. Any entrained pollen will travel at ground level where impaction leads to pollen deposition. Conditions will improve slightly tomorrow with sunny skies, but temperatures will remain marginal at best and winds will slacken. The atmosphere will be more stable but overall conditions should not encourage pollen release, entrainment and travel. There will not be a new forecast tomorrow on Christmas but a new forcast will be posted on Saturday for Saturday and Sunday.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN - THURSDAY



JUNCTION - THURSDAY



SONORA - THURSDAY



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - THURSDAY


AUSTIN - FRIDAY



JUNCTION - FRIDAY



SONORA - FRIDAY



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - FRIDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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