The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cold north but seasonal towards the south today. In Oklahoma high temperatures are expected to remain in the 30s to low 40s along the border with Texas. In Texas temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s across the Plateau and its surrounding communities. Skies will be sunny region wide with some scattered clouds to the north across central Oklahoma. Winds to the north will be from the West at light to moderate conditions, whereas towards the south the Plateau will see light to moderate winds from the west and north, whereas in the edge communities’ winds will be from the east and southeast. Tonight skies will remain clear region wide with temperatures at or below freezing. Winds will strengthen a bit, coming from the north to northwest. Sunday will be sunny over most of the region, with some clouds moving into the western most areas of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will cool in the north with the Arbuckle area down in the low 40’s. To the south, however, conditions will warm by five or six degrees in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau, but remain relatively constant on the Plateau. Winds will be moderate from the north on Sunday and Sunday night. Sunday night will see low temperatures in the mid 20s across the Plateau, the low 30s in the edge communities and in the 20s to teens towards the north into Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: partly cloudy skies will occur across central Oklahoma and sunny skies will occur in southern Oklahoma today and tomorrow. Skies will be clear both nights. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s from central Oklahoma southward today, then cooling by five degrees tomorrow as northerly winds bring colder air into the region. Today winds will be from the west at 10 miles per hour then settling down to light and variable conditions tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be in the teens to lower 20s region wide. The atmosphere will be heavy with its elevation as it travels at or near ground level both today and tomorrow. Today, the trajectories move eastward across Oklahoma into Arkansas. As the winds switch today, coming from the north the trajectories move to the southeast tomorrow. .

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poorconditions for entrainment and transport today,Poor conditions tomorrow. A low threat exists today and tomorrow with partly cloudy to sunny skies but cold conditions and only moderate wind speeds diminishing to light and variable conditions tonight and tomorrow. Any pollen that is released will be exposed to very heavy atmospheric conditions that move at or just above ground level. Winds today and tomorrow will be from the west moving to a more northerly direction overnight and tomorrow. Because of these conditions there is a low threat today and tomorrow. There is very marginal conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Even though conditions are poor, we are entering the traditional period of heavy pollen release, thus it is possible that areas close to the pollinating trees will experience significant pollen levels

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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