The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cold north but seasonal towards the south today. In Oklahoma high temperatures are expected to remain in the 30s to low 40s along the border with Texas. In Texas temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s across the Plateau and its surrounding communities. Skies will be sunny region wide with some scattered clouds to the north across central Oklahoma. Winds to the north will be from the West at light to moderate conditions, whereas towards the south the Plateau will see light to moderate winds from the west and north, whereas in the edge communities’ winds will be from the east and southeast. Tonight skies will remain clear region wide with temperatures at or below freezing. Winds will strengthen a bit, coming from the north to northwest. Sunday will be sunny over most of the region, with some clouds moving into the western most areas of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will cool in the north with the Arbuckle area down in the low 40’s. To the south, however, conditions will warm by five or six degrees in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau, but remain relatively constant on the Plateau. Winds will be moderate from the north on Sunday and Sunday night. Sunday night will see low temperatures in the mid 20s across the Plateau, the low 30s in the edge communities and in the 20s to teens towards the north into Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: Sunny and clear skies will prevail across the region today and tomorrow. Temperatures today in Texas will be in the upper-40s to the north and in the low 50s on the Edwards Plateau. The communities surrounding the Plateau region, such as Austin and San Antonio, will be in the upper 50s. Tomorrow, temperatures will warm by five or six degrees in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau but remain relatively constant in other areas. Overnight tonight and tomorrow night low temperatures will be in the 20s across the plateau and in the low 30s elsewhere. Winds today will be mixed with moderate levels across the Plateau and light winds elsewhere. Wind direction will also be mixed; winds will be from the west on the Plateau, from the southwest in north Texas and from the northeast along the edge of the Plateau. Tonight a dominant northerly wind will arrive in the region building to moderate wind strength. Tomorrow and tomorrow night moderate winds from the north will occur. Trajectories from Texas all swirl clockwise during the beginning of the day, but as the north to northwesterly winds move in, the trajectories start to move towards the southeast and then southward. Tomorrow winds will continue the southerly direction on the predominant northern breezes. Today, marginal temperatures and dry conditions will result in good conditions for pollen release. However, light winds and a stable atmosphere will begin the day for moderate conditions for entrainment and travel. As the winds begin to shift to a northerly direction and pick-up entrainment and travel is more likely, moving pollen south and southeast of the Edwards Plateau. The combination of clear skies, moderate winds and marginal temperatures should provide conditions that will result in the first region wide pulse of Juniperus ashei pollen this weekend. For these reasons tomorrow will definitely see a high threat with good conditions for release and good conditions for entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Cool temperatures but dryer conditions than the beginning of the week will result in good conditions for pollen to be released from the trees today and tomorrow. Light winds will result in moderate conditions fro entrainment and travel at the beginning of the day, but once the regional winds from the north take over conditions will improve for entrainment and travel. The forecast for moderate winds tonight and especially tomorrow will aid in the drying and eventual dispersal of the pollen within the atmosphere. We are beginning to see significant levels of pollen reported, those areas within the distribution or proximal to the distribution can expect significant levels of pollen in the atmosphere. Further distant communities will be impacted from pollen entrained in winds that pass over the pollinating tree region. The week after Christmas is generally the beginning of the heavy pollen release season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN - SATURDAY

JUNCTION - SATURDAY

SONORA - SATURDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY

AUSTIN - SUNDAY

JUNCTION - SUNDAY

SONORA - SUNDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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