The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 28 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cool today degrading overnight with regional precipitation over Oklahoma and Texas, tomorrow. Winds over Texas will be moderate from the northeast but the trajectories show a general rotation into west Texas and eastern New Mexico over the next 24 hours. In Oklahoma winds will remain light and variable today and tonight picking up tomorrow from the southeast at moderate levels. Temperatures will remain cold with highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s from central Oklahoma southward. An increasing chance of precipitation will begin overnight with a 30 to 50% chance of snow falling on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds on Tuesday will remain light and variable in southern Oklahoma but reach moderate levels to the north in central Oklahoma. In Texas, cool conditions will occur across the central area today with highs reaching into the upper 40s and low 50s on the Edwards Plateau and the mid to upper 50s in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Tonight an increasing chance of precipitation will move into the area starting as rain and sleet followed by show on Tuesday and returning to rain on Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain in the 30s for most of the region both tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Winds will begin today from the northeast at moderate levels and maintain their strength overnight. Tomorrow the winds will remain moderate but begin to shift, coming from the southwest on the Edwards Plateau Tuesday night. The chance of precipitation will continue region wide through Tuesday night.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today and tonight becoming mostly cloudy tomorrow and tomorrow night as the chance of precipitation increases. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be in the upper 30s today and cool to the lower 30s tomorrow. Overnight tonight, temperatures will dip into the teens and lower 20s. Tomorrow night temperature will be in the mid 20s overnight. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the low 40s today and mid 30s tomorrow. The chance of precipitation, as snow, increases overnight tonight with a 30 to 50% chance tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will be light and variable across the region today then start to pick-up from the south tomorrow afternoon and evening. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move southeastward across northern Texas. The air will be cold and heavy and increasingly humid.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Marginal conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cool conditions with light and variable winds and partly cloudy skies will occur today near the Arbuckle Mountain population. The atmosphere will be heavy and travel near the ground. Conditions will begin to degrade overnight as a significant chance of precipitation is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will only reach into the low 40s today and mid 30s tomorrow. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s. The cold conditions and upcoming precipitation result in a low threat today and tomorrow. The heavy atmospheric conditions and light winds result in poor conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen away from the Arbuckles Mountain populations. The increasing chance of precipitation tomorrow will continue poor conditions tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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