The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: uesday, December 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cold today with a significant chance of precipitation both north and south. To the north in Oklahoma snow is expected in central and southern Oklahoma, while in northern and central Texas rain will change to sleet and snow during today and into tonight. Accumulations of up to a couple inches are expected in areas on the Edwards Plateau. Winds in Oklahoma will be light and variable building towards light to moderate conditions in northern Texas from the northeast. Overnight winds will remain light. Over the Edwards Plateau winds will be moderate from the southeast shifting from the west and southwest tonight. The Edwards Plateau has a 90% chance of precipitation today, then dropping during the evening horus and overnight. The chance of precipitation in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau will remain high overnight with declining chances at sites in northern Texas into central Oklahoma. Temperatures across the region today and tonight will remain in the 30s. Tomorrow cloudy and mostly cloudy skies will remain but temperatures will begin to climb out of the 30s reaching the 40s across Oklahoma and into the low 50s across most of Texas. The southern edge communities will reach for the 60s during the day. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest and west. A chance of precipitation will remain in the edge communities as well as to the north in central Oklahoma. Wednesday night skies will begin to break-up with partly cloudy skies in most areas and temperatures in the 20s to the north and 30s across Texas.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies and cold temperatures will occur across Oklahoma today and tonight remaining mostly cloudy tomorrow and tomorrow night. There is a 40 to 50% chance of precipitation today increasing into the evening hours. The precipitation is expected to fall as snow across the region. Tomorrow, temperatures in central Oklahoma will be back to the low to mid 40s from north to south. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the upper 30s today and low 40s tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable across the region today then start to pick-up from the south tomorrow afternoon and evening. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move northward across central and northern Oklahoma into the central and northern Great Plains. The air will be cold and stable and humid.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions with light and variable winds and cloudy skies along with an increasing chance of precipitation through the day and into tonight will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population. The atmosphere will be cold and stable, travelling near the ground. On Wednesday temperatures will only reach into the low 40s. The cold conditions and upcoming precipitation result in a low threat today and tomorrow. The cold stable atmospheric conditions and light winds result in poor conditions for entrainment and travel of pollen away from the Arbuckles Mountain populations. The increasing chance of precipitation tonight will continue poor conditions into tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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