The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 30 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will warm after yesterday’s stormy conditions. Skies will start cloudy but thinning into the afternoon and tonight. Clear to mostly clear skies are expected tonight, especially to the south and east of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain in the 40s across Oklahoma with the chance of snow continuing today with winds from the south. Across Texas, temperatures are returning into the 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the 60s in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be moderate through the day from the southwest shifting from the west tonight. Winds will decline overnight to light conditions except in the southwestern region of the Plateau where they will remain moderate. Temperatures will be well below freezing in central Oklahoma and the mid thirties across the Edwards Plateau. The communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will drop into the 40s. Tomorrow, skies will continue to clear with temperatures staying nearly the same. Oklahoma will continue to have a chance of snow in the morning. Southward, temperatures will be in the 50s across the Edwards Plateau and 60s in the edge communities. Winds will switch, coming from the northwest at moderate levels. Wednesday night and Thursday morning, skies will be mostly clear across Texas with temperatures below freezing across the Edwards Plateau and mid 30s to 40s surrounding the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy, cold and humid conditions will dominate this morning with conditions starting to improve through the day. Clouds will increase tonight, but temperatures will remain above freezing for much of the area. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and the lower 60s in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate from the southwest and west. Westerly winds will be light, region wide overnight. On Thursday, temperatures will be similar across the region but winds will switch, coming from the northwest at moderate levels. Skies will begin to clear tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will drop into the 20s across the Plateau region and into the 30s in surrounding communities. Conditions for pollen dispersal will be improving, especially in the surrounding communities as temperatures warm into the 60s today and tomorrow. Wet conditions yesterday and overnight may retard some dispersal early but this is the traditional time for heavy pollen release so those communities at the edge of the population may see moderate amounts today and significant amounts tomorrow. However, today particles will have trouble getting entrained and their movement will be limited because of heavy atmospheric conditions that will move along the ground during the day. .

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High Threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warm and wet humid conditions from yesterday’s precipitation with moderate winds and cloudy skies occur across the region and result in moderate conditions for pollen release today. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 30s to low 40s with light winds from the west. Damp conditions yesterday will begin to dry resulting in much better conditions later today and tomorrow for pollen release. Westerly winds will move the atmosphere to the east into Louisiana. Tomorrows temperatures will be similar but skies will continue to clear in the afternoon and evening. Drying conditions and warming temperatures result in a moderate threat today and a high threat tomorrow. The atmosphere will continue to be heavy and move along the ground with only moderate winds, thus entrainment and travel will be more restricted today but become more favorable tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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