The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued:19 December 2010

Mountain Cedar location(s):
Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather:
Sunday, December 19 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will transition from cooler conditions to warm temperatures tomorrow. Winds will be dominantly from the south with a slight switch from southeast to southwest from today to tomorrow across Oklahoma and moving more towards the southwest tomorrow across Texas. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the north and in the upper 60s to the 70s in the south. Winds will be moderate at 10 to 15 mph across the region building towards 10 to 20 mph in Oklahoma tomorrow as the overall wind pattern shifts from southerly to southwesterly. The edge of the Edwards Plateau will see increased humidity overnight and tomorrow with increasing clouds and a chance of patchy fog Sunday evening into Monday. Tonight temperatures will be in the 40s tonight across Oklahoma and be in the upper 40s across Texas. Winds will remain across the region from the south at moderate levels of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Monday will be much warmer with highs reaching the mid-70s in southern Oklahoma and across Texas and the Edwards Plateau region. Increased humidity will persist in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Winds will remain from the south to southwest at slightly decreased levels of 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather:
Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma on persistent northerly winds. Partly cloudy skies will occur across the region but with warming conditions with temperatures reaching into the-mid 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain area. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow .Tonight temperatures will cool into the lower 40s with winds from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. With warm conditions today and tomorrow pollen released from Arbuckle Mountain area should move northward toward northern Oklahoma and into Kansas. It is early in the pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.

OUTLOOK: ***
Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days
. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. With warm temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With warming conditions building for tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement from the Arbuckle Mountains that is entrained should move due north on southerly winds.


Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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