The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued:19
December 2010
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Sunday, December 19
– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will transition from
cooler conditions to warm temperatures tomorrow. Winds will be dominantly from the south with a slight switch from
southeast to southwest from today to tomorrow across Oklahoma and moving more towards the southwest tomorrow across
Texas. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the north and in the upper 60s to the 70s in the
south. Winds will be moderate at 10 to 15 mph across the region building towards 10 to 20 mph in Oklahoma tomorrow
as the overall wind pattern shifts from southerly to southwesterly. The edge of the Edwards Plateau will see increased
humidity overnight and tomorrow with increasing clouds and a chance of patchy fog Sunday evening into Monday. Tonight
temperatures will be in the 40s tonight across Oklahoma and be in the upper 40s across Texas. Winds will remain
across the region from the south at moderate levels of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Monday will be much warmer with
highs reaching the mid-70s in southern Oklahoma and across Texas and the Edwards Plateau region. Increased humidity
will persist in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Winds will remain from the south to southwest at
slightly decreased levels of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle
Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma on persistent northerly winds. Partly cloudy skies will occur across
the region but with warming conditions with temperatures reaching into the-mid 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain area.
The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow .Tonight temperatures will cool into the lower
40s with winds from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. With warm conditions today and tomorrow pollen released
from Arbuckle Mountain area should move northward toward northern Oklahoma and into Kansas. It is early in the
pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions
for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions
with moderate wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. With warm temperatures and moderate
wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed
their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning.
With warming conditions building for tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore
the forecast calls for a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement
from the Arbuckle Mountains that is entrained should move due north on southerly winds.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star
on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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