The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued:19
December 2010
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional weather: Sunday, December 19 –
TX/OK: Across the region the weather will transition from
cooler conditions to warm temperatures tomorrow. Winds will be dominantly from the south with a slight switch from
southeast to southwest from today to tomorrow across Oklahoma and moving more towards the southwest tomorrow across
Texas. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the north and in the upper 60s to the 70s in
the south. Winds will be moderate at 10 to 15 mph across the region building towards 10 to 20 mph in Oklahoma
tomorrow as the overall wind pattern shifts from southerly to southwesterly. The edge of the Edwards Plateau will
see increased humidity overnight and tomorrow with increasing clouds and a chance of patchy fog Sunday evening
into Monday. Tonight temperatures will be in the 40s tonight across Oklahoma and be in the upper 40s across Texas.
Winds will remain across the region from the south at moderate levels of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Monday will
be much warmer with highs reaching the mid-70s in southern Oklahoma and across Texas and the Edwards Plateau region.
Increased humidity will persist in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Winds will remain from the south
to southwest at slightly decreased levels of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards
Plateau move to the north on persistent northerly winds. Mostly sunny skies will occur across the region with warming
temperatures reaching into the-mid to upper 60s in the northerly areas and reaching the 70’s in the central region
and sough. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow. Tonight temperatures will cool into
the upper 30s to lower 40s with winds from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The communities around the edge
of the Edwards Plateau have the potential of patchy fog. With warm conditions today and tomorrow pollen released
from the region should move northward toward central and northern Texas and into Oklahoma. It is early in the
pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions
with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. With warm temperatures and moderate wind
speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their
pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With
warming conditions building for tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore the
forecast calls for a moderate threat and good conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement from
the populations that are ripe and becomes entrained should move due north on southerly winds.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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