The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 20 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today and tomorrow. Winds will be dominantly from the south today with a switch in store tomorrow afternoon and evening across Oklahoma. Today wind speeds will be moderate in most areas with higher wind speeds around the Dallas/Fort Worth area north into Oklahoma. Temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s from northern to southern Oklahoma and in the upper 70s reaching towards 80 across Texas. Winds will be moderate at 10 to 15 mph across the region building to 15 to 20 mph in Oklahoma. The edge of the Edwards Plateau will see increased humidity overnight and tomorrow with increasing clouds and a chance of patchy fog Monday evening into Tuesday. Tonight temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s to the north across Oklahoma and in the 40s to 50s across Texas. Winds will moderate across the region tonight then tomorrow the overall wind pattern shifts from southerly to a northerly direction across Oklahoma but the Edwards Plateau remains with a dominant southerly direction. Tuesday will begin to cool across Oklahoma but warm temperatures will remain across Texas with much of the area flirting with the low 80’s. Increased humidity will persist tomorrow night in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. In the southern areas winds will remain from the south to southwest at low levels of 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma on persistent southerly winds. Partly cloudy skies will occur across the region but with warm conditions. High temperatures are expected in the lower 60’s to the north up into the mid-70’s towards Texas.. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow .Tonight temperatures will cool into the upper 30s with winds from the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. With warm conditions today and starting to cool tomorrow pollen released from Arbuckle Mountain area should move northward toward northern Oklahoma and into Kansas. Late tonight conditions begin to change as the winds turn coming from the north overnight. Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow and tomorrow night. It is early in the pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. With warm temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With warming conditions building for tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and good conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement from the Arbuckle Mountains that is entrained should move due north on southerly winds through Tuesday.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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