The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, December 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today and tomorrow. Winds will be dominantly from the south today with a switch in store tomorrow afternoon and evening across Oklahoma. Today wind speeds will be moderate in most areas with higher wind speeds around the Dallas/Fort Worth area north into Oklahoma. Temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s from northern to southern Oklahoma and in the upper 70s reaching towards 80 across Texas. Winds will be moderate at 10 to 15 mph across the region building to 15 to 20 mph in Oklahoma. The edge of the Edwards Plateau will see increased humidity overnight and tomorrow with increasing clouds and a chance of patchy fog Monday evening into Tuesday. Tonight temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s to the north across Oklahoma and in the 40s to 50s across Texas. Winds will moderate across the region tonight then tomorrow the overall wind pattern shifts from southerly to a northerly direction across Oklahoma but the Edwards Plateau remains with a dominant southerly direction. Tuesday will begin to cool across Oklahoma but warm temperatures will remain across Texas with much of the area flirting with the low 80’s. Increased humidity will persist tomorrow night in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. In the southern areas winds will remain from the south to southwest at low levels of 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast on persistent Southwesterly winds. Partly cloudy skies will give way to mostly sunny skies conditions across the region with warming temperatures reaching into the-mid to mid to upper 70s in the northerly areas and reaching the 80’s in the central region and south. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow .Tonight temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s with winds from the southwest moving to the south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The communities around the edge of the Edwards Plateau have the potential of patchy fog again as high humidity is present. With warm conditions today and tomorrow pollen released from the region should move northeasterly toward eastcentral Texas and southern Arkansas. It is early in the pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. With warm temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With warm conditions today and tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and good conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement from the populations that are ripe and becomes entrained should move northeasterly on southwesterly winds shifting overnight to a more southerly wind source.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page