The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 21 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be changing to the north and warm today across the southern region. Winds will be dominantly from the north across Oklahoma and changing to more westerly direction then moving back swirling somewhat over the next couple of days. Tomorrow winds will be mostly from the northeast to the east and southeast from north to south. Trajectories show a general swirling across the region over the next 24 to 48 hours. Today wind speeds will be moderate in most areas. Winds will be decreasing overnight becoming light tomorrow. Temperatures today will be warm in the 50s and lower 60s across northern Oklahoma to the low 80s across the edge community along the Edwards Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be below freezing in northern Oklahoma to mild conditions across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low 60s in Austin and San Antonio. Higher humidity is expected with the chance of drizzle and fog across the eastern Edwards Plateau edge communities. Tomorrow, skies will be cloudy to partly cloudy skies with drizzle and morning fog. In Oklahoma temperatures will start in the 20s and 30s whereas to the south most areas will be in the 60s. Conditions tomorrow will cool significantly to the north and be milder to the south with temperatures reaching the mid-70s to the south. Winds will be from the northeast across Oklahoma, the east on the Edwards Plateau and the southeast along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Wind strength will remain mild.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast around the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau and swirl over the plateau today and into tomorrow across the rest of the region. Sunny skies will give way to mostly partly cloudy skies tomorrow across the region with warm temperatures today cooling by about 10 degrees tomorrow. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and light today and tomorrow although wind speeds are declining with the trajectories showing movement regionally for the next 48 hours and restricted long distance travel .Tonight temperatures will cool into the lower 40s across the Plateau and the lower 60s in the edge communities. Increasing levels of humidity will result in drizzle and patchy fog overnight. With warm conditions today and tomorrow pollen released from the region should move toward the northeast across the edge communities, towards the east across the plateau and towards the northwest in northern Texas on light winds. Overall these winds will result in an overall swirling of winds over the Texas region. It is early in the pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate to light wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. With warm temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With warm conditions today and tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be increasing. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and good conditions for release today and tomorrow. Pollen movement from the populations that are ripe and becomes entrained should move remain close to their source with swirling winds across the Texas region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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