The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 22 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be changing. To the north, cooler conditions and partly cloudy skies will occur with high temperatures in the 40s today north and reaching into the 50s along the border with Texas. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Overnight the area will have partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. The border region will be about 10 degrees warmer in the lower 40s. Winds will remain light and variable over the region. In Texas the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy whereas skies will be partly sunny in the Dallas Ft. Worth region as well as areas around the edge of the Edwards Plateau in Austin and San Antonio. Temperatures will reach into the mid-60s across the Plateau and cooling into the 50s in the other areas. Winds will be moderate from the northeast across the area. Tonight conditions will become cloudy with temperatures dipping into the mid-50s to the east and dropping towards the 30s in the western portion of the Plateau around San Angelo. The edge communities towards the middle of the Plateau have the potential of drizzle and fog tomorrow morning. Temperatures will stay about the same as today. Winds will shift coming out of the southeast at low to moderate strength. Tomorrow night skies will remain cloudy with increasing chances of rain across the region north of Austin and San Antonio. Winds will be in the 40s to 50s for lows. Winds will remain moderate but shift coming out of the east.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south curling around back towards the north tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds will be moderate with light and variable conditions overnight. Skies will be partly cloudy today and tonight gaining overnight to cloudy conditions. Today’s temperatures will reach the mid-50s then dip into the mid-30s overnight. Tomorrow skies will continue to be cloudy with cool conditions and light to moderate winds. Thursday night sees the first significant chance of rain in sometime with temperatures in the lower 30’s. It is early in the pollination season and the extent of any current release is not known.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today with conditions degrading tomorrow, especially tomorrow night. Good conditions for entrainment and transport today but degrading overnight into tomorrow. Cool conditions with moderate to light wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. With cool temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is moderate today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. However, the season for pollen release is young and the number of ripe cones is at its beginning. With cooling tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be waning. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and good conditions for release today but degrading to poor conditions tomorrow. Pollen movement from the Arbuckle Mountains that is entrained should move southward and then off towards the west looping back north towards Oklahoma tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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