The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 23 December 2010
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Thursday, December 23 - TX/OK:
A change in the weather will be crossing the region today and tomorrow. To the north, temperatures will cool into
the 40s with moderate winds from the east. The chance of rain will increase towards the southern border of Oklahoma
and Texas. Across Texas drizzle and fog will greet the morning along the edge of the Edwards Plateau and towards
the west. Temperatures across Texas will be in the 50s to the west and on the Plateau, whereas around the eastern
edge communities, temperatures will remain in the 60s. Winds will be from the east and southeast at moderate levels
throughout the day. Tonight skies will remain cloudy across the region. There is a chance of rain ranging from
the 80% across Oklahoma to 30-40% across Texas. Low temperatures will be in the mid-30s to the north and rise
into the mid-50s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau, temperatures will be in the mid
to lower 40s. Rainy conditions will continue on Friday with rain across the region. Temperatures will return
to the 50s and 60s. As the front passes winds will remain light to moderate but switch from a predominant easterly
direction to the northwest, especially across the western Texas. Friday night skies will begin to clear with
rain exiting the region. A significant chance of showers will remain to the Oklahoma/Texas border are. Temperatures
will be in the 30s and 40s and winds will be from the north to northwest,
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north initially then curl
back towards the south tonight, as a cold front comes through the area. Winds will be moderate with light and variable
conditions overnight. Skies will be cloudy with a significant chance of rain this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow.
Today’s temperatures will reach the mid-40s then dip into the 30s overnight. Because of the cold, wet conditions
little pollen is expected to be released today, tonight or tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release
today and with condition remaining poor overnight and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport
exist today and tomorrow. Rain along with Cool conditions and moderate to light wind speeds will occur near the
Arbuckle Mountain population today. With increasing chance of rain, cool temperatures and moderate wind speeds,
the potential of pollen release is poor today. With cool, wet conditions continuing tomorrow, pollen cone ripening
and release should be minimal. Therefore the forecast calls for a poor threat and poor conditions for release today
and tomorrow. .
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page