The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 23 - TX/OK: A change in the weather will be crossing the region today and tomorrow. To the north, temperatures will cool into the 40s with moderate winds from the east. The chance of rain will increase towards the southern border of Oklahoma and Texas. Across Texas drizzle and fog will greet the morning along the edge of the Edwards Plateau and towards the west. Temperatures across Texas will be in the 50s to the west and on the Plateau, whereas around the eastern edge communities, temperatures will remain in the 60s. Winds will be from the east and southeast at moderate levels throughout the day. Tonight skies will remain cloudy across the region. There is a chance of rain ranging from the 80% across Oklahoma to 30-40% across Texas. Low temperatures will be in the mid-30s to the north and rise into the mid-50s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau, temperatures will be in the mid to lower 40s. Rainy conditions will continue on Friday with rain across the region. Temperatures will return to the 50s and 60s. As the front passes winds will remain light to moderate but switch from a predominant easterly direction to the northwest, especially across the western Texas. Friday night skies will begin to clear with rain exiting the region. A significant chance of showers will remain to the Oklahoma/Texas border are. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s and winds will be from the north to northwest,


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau region move to the north initially then curl back towards the south tonight, as a cold front comes through the area. Winds will be moderate with light and variable conditions overnight. Skies will be cloudy with a significant chance of rain this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow. Today’s temperatures will reach the mid-40s then dip into the 30s overnight. Because of the cold, wet conditions little pollen is expected to be released today, tonight or tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and with condition remaining poor overnight and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Rain along with Cool conditions and moderate to light wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. With increasing chance of rain, cool temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is poor today. With cool, wet conditions continuing tomorrow, pollen cone ripening and release should be minimal. Therefore the forecast calls for a low threat and poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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