The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, December 24 - TX/OK: A change in the weather will be crossing the region today and tonight with improving conditions tomorrow. To the north, temperatures will remain in the 40s with light and variable winds and cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Areas from central Oklahoma towards the Texas border will have periods of drizzle this morning with clearing skies towards the evening and overnight. Winds will be from the north to northwest at upwards of 10 miles per hour. Tonight’s lows will be in the 20s as the skies begin to clear. Winds will remain from the north to northwest at about 10 miles per hour. In Texas cloudy skies today will be accompanied by rain throughout the Dallas/Ft. Worth area south across the Edwards Plateau towards west Texas. As the system moves through the area today, skies will become partly cloudy but the chance of thunderstorms increases. Temperatures will be in the 40s towards the border with Oklahoma, but become warmer to the south. The Edwards Plateau region will be in the 50s and 60s, whereas the edge communities from Waco to Austin and west to San Antonio will be in the 60s and low 70s. Winds will be shifting from the southeast towards the North and northwest increasing toward moderate strength. Tonight’s skies will begin to clear late with temperatures heading towards the 30s and 40s, especially as the north wind becomes established from the north bringing colder air to the region. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs only in the 40s and 50s. The winds will continue from the north becoming stronger during the day. Tomorrow night will see clear skies and the associated cooling with low temperatures in the 20s across the region. Winds will lighten but stay from the north for the most part. Early Sunday morning winds in the edge communities will begin to shift coming from the southwest.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau, move to the south on northerly winds associated with the weather system moving across the region. Drizzle and Rain is forecast for the area where the trees are growing. Rain will occur throughout today with the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. As the weather system moves out of the area cold temperatures will follow dropping tonight’s lows into the 30s and 40s. In addition, winds will be moderate to light from the north. Skies will be clearing tomorrow with a reduced chance of rain, but cold conditions will predominate. Today’s temperatures will reach the mid-60s to low 70’s, then dip into the 30s overnight and remain in the 50’s tomorrow. Because of the cold, wet conditions little pollen is expected to be released today, tonight or tomorrow from the Juniper populations. However, past experience suggests that with moisture during a dry year, next week could see the first significant release of pollen in the region.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and with condition remaining poor overnight and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Rain along with conditions getting colder and moderate to light wind speeds, will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. Today’s rain and cool temperatures along with moderate wind speeds, make the potential of pollen release poor today. Cooler, wet conditions tomorrow, will result in pollen cone ripening and release being minimal. Therefore the forecast calls for a low threat and poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN (FRIDAY)

JUNCTION (FRIDAY)

SONORA (FRIDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (FRIDAY)

AUSTIN (SATURDAY)

JUNCTION (SATURDAY)

SONORA (SATURDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SATURDAY)

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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