The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, December 26 - TX/OK: Cold wet conditions over the last couple days will be clearing with sunny skies across most of the area. Cool temperatures will occur across the region with highs today in the 40’s across Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau region of Texas. Some areas to the west will reach into the lower 50s. Winds today will be light and variable across Oklahoma and gaining strength towards the south. Wind direction will begin from the north but turn during this afternoon and into tomorrow with a more southerly direction becoming predominant. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures dropping into the 20’s. winds will remain light and predominantly from the south. Tomorrow will be warmer with the northern areas reaching into the 40’s and the Edwards Plateau region moving into the upper 50’s. Skies will be clear and sunny for the most part, however partly cloudy conditions will build towards the west late in the afternoon and into tomorrow night. Monday night there is a 20% chance of rain around the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Overnight temperatures on Monday night will be much milder reaching only into the upper 30’s and 40’s. Colder conditions will be towards western Texas and warmer overnight conditions in the edge communities.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the southwest then turn towards north on increasing southerly winds. Clear skies and light and variable winds are expected today and tonight with southerly breezes gaining in strength tomorrow. Over the next 24 hours southerly winds will be gaining in strength moving air masses over the Arbuckle Mountains northward to the west of Oklahoma City. Today’s and tomorrow’s temperatures will reach the mid-40s then dip into the 20s overnight. Because of the cool conditions modest pollen is expected to be released today and tomorrow from the Arbuckle population.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Modest conditions for pollen release today with condition remaining moderate tomorrow. Modest conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions but with cool conditions and light wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. With cool temperatures and moderate to light wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is moderate today and tomorrow. Pollen cone ripening and release should be minimal but any entrained pollen has the potential of moving northward over the Oklahoma City region. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today and tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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