The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 26 December 2010
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather:
Sunday, December 26 - TX/OK:
Cold wet conditions over the last couple days will be clearing with sunny skies across most of the area. Cool
temperatures will occur across the region with highs today in the 40’s across Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau
region of Texas. Some areas to the west will reach into the lower 50s. Winds today will be light and variable
across Oklahoma and gaining strength towards the south. Wind direction will begin from the north but turn during
this afternoon and into tomorrow with a more southerly direction becoming predominant. Tonight skies will be mostly
clear with temperatures dropping into the 20’s. winds will remain light and predominantly from the south. Tomorrow
will be warmer with the northern areas reaching into the 40’s and the Edwards Plateau region moving into the upper
50’s. Skies will be clear and sunny for the most part, however partly cloudy conditions will build towards the
west late in the afternoon and into tomorrow night. Monday night there is a 20% chance of rain around the Edwards
Plateau edge communities. Overnight temperatures on Monday night will be much milder reaching only into the upper
30’s and 40’s. Colder conditions will be towards western Texas and warmer overnight conditions in the edge communities.
Trajectory weather:
Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the southwest then turn towards north on increasing southerly
winds. Clear skies and light and variable winds are expected today and tonight with southerly breezes gaining
in strength tomorrow. Over the next 24 hours southerly winds will be gaining in strength moving air masses over
northwestern Texas and the western portion of Oklahoma to the west of Oklahoma City. Today’s and tomorrow’s temperatures
will reach the upper-40’s to lower-50s then dip into the 20s overnight. Because of the cool conditions moderate
pollen is expected to be released today, gaining in strength tomorrow from the Edwards Plateau population. With
the warm temperatures increased humidity will build tomorrow afternoon with a 20% chance of rain in the surrounding
edge communities tomorrow night.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Moderate
conditions for pollen release today with condition remaining good tomorrow. Good conditions for entrainment and
transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions but with cool conditions and light wind speeds will occur
across the Edwards Plateau population today. Winds will be stronger across Texas in the moderate range of 10 to
15 mph hour from the south. With cool temperatures, the potential of pollen release is moderate today and tomorrow.
However, localized release of heavy amounts are possible. Pollen cone ripening and release should be gaining in
strength and any entrained pollen has the potential of moving northward over west central Texas and the Oklahoma
City region. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today and tomorrow.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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