The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

High

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Monday, December 27 - TX/OK: Sunny to mostly sunny skies will predominate the region this morning but with clouds building during the day. Temperatures will be cool but seasonal with most areas reaching into the upper 40’s to upper 50’s from north to south. Winds will be from the southeast building into the afternoon and then decreasing overnight. In Oklahoma partly cloudy conditions this morning will build during the day, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 40’s then cooling into the upper 20’s to the north and mid 30s along the border with Texas. To the south in Texas, mostly sunny skies will begin to cloud over during the day, temperatures will be in the upper 50’s across the region. Winds will be from the southeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow, the north will have increasing clouds and a good chance of rain over Tuesday night. Temperatures will moderate into the upper 40s and lower 50s during the day and drop to around 40 degrees overnight. There is a 40-50% chance of rain between the Texas border and central Oklahoma forecast. In Texas the rains will arrive earlier with cloudy skies Tuesday morning and a significant chance of rain across the region. Those areas to the west will have a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, whereas those on the Plateau and in the Edwards Plateau edge communities will see heightened chances of rain showers and thunderstorms. Winds across the region will be from the southeast and 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will be in the 50s for most areas, conditions will be cooler towards the north and warmer to the south. Tuesday night will be wet in most places with the chance of rain increasing upwards. Low temperatures will be close to the daytime highs.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north then turn towards the east just north of the Kansas border and then move in an easterly direction. Partly Cloudy and cool temperatures will occur across the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will be from the south at moderate to strong levels. Conditions will begin to degrade into the evening with an increasing chance of rain tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the 40’s today for a high and warming into the low 50’s tomorrow. Today should be dry in southern Oklahoma but humidity will be increasing along with cloudy skies along with light and variable winds.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Modest conditions for pollen release today with conditions degrading to Low tomorrow. Modest conditions for entrainment and transport exist today, but become poor tomorrow. Sunny conditions will begin the day but with cool conditions and moderate wind speeds near the Arbuckle Mountain population. With cool temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release will be the best this morning into the early afternoon. Pollen cone ripening and release should be constrained but any entrained pollen has the potential of moving northward over the Oklahoma City region. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today. Tomorrow conditions will deteriorate into the evening when the chance of rain increases significantly. For those reasons the threat tomorrow has been determined to be Low.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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