The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Monday, Decenber 27 - TX/OK: Sunny to mostly sunny skies will predominate the region this morning but with clouds building during the day. Temperatures will be cool but seasonal with most areas reaching into the upper 40’s to upper 50’s from north to south. Winds will be from the southeast building into the afternoon and then decreasing overnight. In Oklahoma partly cloudy conditions this morning will build during the day, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 40’s then cooling into the upper 20’s to the north and mid 30s along the border with Texas. To the south in Texas, mostly sunny skies will begin to cloud over during the day, temperatures will be in the upper 50’s across the region. Winds will be from the southeast at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow, the north will have increasing clouds and a good chance of rain over Tuesday night. Temperatures will moderate into the upper 40s and lower 50s during the day and drop to around 40 degrees overnight. There is a 40-50% chance of rain between the Texas border and central Oklahoma forecast. In Texas the rains will arrive earlier with cloudy skies Tuesday morning and a significant chance of rain across the region. Those areas to the west will have a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, whereas those on the Plateau and in the Edwards Plateau edge communities will see heightened chances of rain showers and thunderstorms. Winds across the region will be from the southeast and 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will be in the 50s for most areas, conditions will be cooler towards the north and warmer to the south. Tuesday night will be wet in most places with the chance of rain increasing upwards. Low temperatures will be close to the daytime highs.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north then turn towards the northeast moving as a more concentrated zone across Oklahoma from the southwest of the state towards the northeast. However, cloudy skies and cool temperatures will occur across the region with highs forecast in upper 40’s to the north and upper 50’s across the rest of the region. Winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate to strong levels. Conditions will begin to degrade overnight with an increasing chance of rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 50’s tomorrow. Today should be dry across the region but humidity will be increasing along with cloudy skies as rain begins build across the region tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today but Low Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today with condition degrading to Low tomorrow. Good conditions for entrainment and transport exist today, but become poor tomorrow. Sunny conditions will begin the day but with cool conditions and moderate wind speeds across the population. With cool temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release will be the best this morning into the early afternoon. Pollen cone ripening is at its beginning across the population, but with the recent precipitation significant numbers of cones may have reached maturity and release is expected to be heavier than anything seen this season, to date. However, the degrading weather conditions tomorrow will probably restrict the continuance of this pollen shedding into tomorrow. Travel will be constrained tomorrow as well. Today’s pollen movement has the potential of moving northward over northern Texas before encountering shifting winds that will take it over the Oklahoma City region and toward northeastern Oklahoma. The concentration of downwind dispersal will be highly dependent on the conditions encountered in the atmosphere overnight.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page