The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tueesday, December 28 - TX/OK: The region today will be cool, humid with rain showers in many of the communities especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma partly cloudy conditions to the north will thicken southward with an increasing chance of rain. Across the state high temperatures will be in the 50’s with winds light and variable northward but increasing from the south towards the border region with Texas. The Arbuckle Mountain region has a 20% chance of showers today increasing overnight. Southward in Texas cloudy skies will cover the state with the chance of rain in most areas. Fog and drizzle will begin the morning in the areas from Dallas southwards along the east side of the Edwards Plateau. Showers will increase during the day with 50% to 60% chance of rain in most areas to the east and 20% to 40% in the western areas of the forecast area. Winds across the region will be from the southeast at 5 to 10. The chance of rain will rise late in the day and overnight with most areas seeing a significant chance of precipitation. Low temperatures overnight will be very mild in the 40’s to the west and 50’s to the east. Winds will remain moderate at 5 to 10 miles per hour from the south. Along the Texas border and southward to Dallas the winds will be from the southeast. Tomorrow, cloudy skies will begin the day with clearing towards the west in the afternoon. The eastern side of the Edwards Plateau, including the surrounding communities, will continue to have a significant chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60’s in the areas with tree populations. Winds will build from the south and southwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour. To the west, winds will blow at stronger levels. Wednesday night mostly clear conditions return with temperatures dropping into the 40’s in most areas and winds will shift coming more from the southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move due north crossing Oklahoma before starting to trend eastward at the lower elevations and bend sharply towards the east at the highest elevation. The Air mass is stable and thus little lift is associated with the northward pathway for the first 250 meters of the atmosphere. Upper level trajectories are influenced by the movement of a larger air mass above 500 meters. Cloudy conditions and cool temperatures will occur across the Edwards Plateau with a 20% to 60% chance of rain today increasing overnight. Tonight there is a significant chance of rain in north Texas and around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau to San Antonio. West Texas will have a reduced chance of rain but still close to 50%. Conditions are expected to remain wet tomorrow morning in most areas with the beginning of clearing after noon. Temperatures will warm and winds will shift from the southeast to the southwest.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with increasing humidity and a significant chance of rain increasing tonight before declining to clearing tomorrow afternoon and night will provide poor conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Pollen cone ripening and release should be constrained with the wet conditions. For those reasons the threat tomorrow has been determined to be low.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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