The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 29 - TX/OK: The region today will be warming on moderate to strong winds from the south. A chance of left-over showers and thunderstorms will occur across Oklahoma south into northern Texas and western Texas. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s in most areas with highs in the mid- to lower-70s in the edge communities along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma, precipitation may occur this morning under cloudy skies that will begin to clear to partly cloudy conditions. Along the southern border with Texas, winds will begin today light and variable but build from the south to moderate levels into the afternoon. Tonight the area will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 40’s and winds from the south at moderate to strong conditions. In Texas, cloudy skies will occur with a chance of rain (20%) in the western portion of the Edwards Plateau this morning. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s in most regions and the low to mid 70’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate from the southwest. Tonight skies will lighten to partly cloudy conditions with formation of fog and some drizzle along the eastern Edwards Plateau communities. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40’s west and mid to lower 50’s towards the east. Winds will continue from the south at moderate levels. Tomorrow across the region temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s north and in the mid to lower 70’s across the rest of the region. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will continue at moderate levels building to strong conditions into the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night will see the return of rainy conditions north in Oklahoma and south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to the east and colder in the low 40’s and upper 30’s in western Texas northward to Oklahoma.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due north crossing Oklahoma and then into Kansas and beyond. The Air mass is buoyant and thus lift is associated with the northward pathway. Cloudy conditions but warming temperatures will occur across the Arbuckle Mountains with a 40% chance of rain this morning. Partly clearing skies will occur this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be mild with moderate winds from the south overnight. Tomorrow will continue to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. The winds will continue to blow strongly from the south. Tomorrow night The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns with lows in the 40’s and continued winds from the south.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow. Good conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with the chance of rain will occur today across Oklahoma this morning but clearing this afternoon. Temperatures will be mild in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s, and winds will be building through the day. Once the showers begin to leave, drying will begin and pollen release may occur towards the later part of the day. Conditions will improve for pollen release tomorrow. The strong southerly winds will move and entrained pollen northward across Oklahoma, Kansas and into the upper mid-west. For these reasons pollen release, entrainment and travel will be moderate today building to high tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and travel both days.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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