The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather:Wednesday, December 29 - TX/OK: The region today will be warming on moderate to strong winds from the south. A chance of left-over showers and thunderstorms will occur across Oklahoma south into northern Texas and western Texas. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s in most areas with highs in the mid- to lower-70s in the edge communities along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma, precipitation may occur this morning under cloudy skies that will begin to clear to partly cloudy conditions. Along the southern border with Texas, winds will begin today light and variable but build from the south to moderate levels into the afternoon. Tonight the area will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 40’s and winds from the south at moderate to strong conditions. In Texas, cloudy skies will occur with a chance of rain (20%) in the western portion of the Edwards Plateau this morning. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s in most regions and the low to mid 70’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate from the southwest. Tonight skies will lighten to partly cloudy conditions with formation of fog and some drizzle along the eastern Edwards Plateau communities. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40’s west and mid to lower 50’s towards the east. Winds will continue from the south at moderate levels. Tomorrow across the region temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s north and in the mid to lower 70’s across the rest of the region. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will continue at moderate levels building to strong conditions into the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night will see the return of rainy conditions north in Oklahoma and south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to the east and colder in the low 40’s and upper 30’s in western Texas northward to Oklahoma.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move due north crossing Oklahoma and then into Kansas and beyond. The Air mass is buoyant and thus lift is associated with the northward pathway. Cloudy conditions but warming temperatures will occur across the Edwards Plateau with a 20% chance of rain in the western portion this morning. Partly clearing skies will occur this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures will be mild with moderate winds from the south overnight. Tomorrow will continue to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid to low 70’s. The winds will continue to blow strongly from the south, especially on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns, to the north towards Oklahoma and in the edge communities around the eastern Edwards Plateau. Nighttime temperatures will be in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s to the west and the mid 50’s to the east. Winds will continue to be moderate from the south..


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today and good conditions tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with the chance of rain will occur today to the north in Oklahoma and across the western portion of the Edwards Plateau. Skies will begin clearing this afternoon. Temperatures will be mild in the upper 60’s and winds will be building through the day. Once the showers taper off, drying will begin and pollen release may occur towards the later part of the day. Conditions will improve for pollen release tomorrow. The strong southerly winds will move any entrained pollen northward across Oklahoma, Kansas and into the upper mid-west. With warm temperatures and moderate to strong winds tomorrow appears to be setting up for very good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and movement. For these reasons pollen release, entrainment and travel will be moderate today building to high levels tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and travel both days.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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