The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 30 - TX/OK: The region today will be warm with partly to mostly cloudy conditions as a cold system moves southward through the northern portion of the region brining strong winds and the chance of precipitation tonight. Areas to the south will have an increased chance of precipitation tomorrow morning and then feel a dip in temperature tomorrow afternoon and evening. In Oklahoma, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today will occur with temperatures in the low 70’s. Winds will be strong with sustained winds as high as 20 to 25 miles per hour. Tonight the chance of thunderstorms increases to 40% with temperatures in the lower 40’s and a continuation of strong winds from the south. In Texas, the morning will begin with mostly cloudy skies across the region. Clearing will occur towards the afternoon with the edge communities breaking into sunny skies. Temperatures will be warm, in the mid 70’s, but strong winds from the south (10-25 mph in areas) will prevail. Overnight the clouds return along with humidity resulting in the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the edge communities around the Edwards Plateau, northward towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area and on towards Oklahoma. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the south. In the western region of central Texas winds will be more from the southwest. Tomorrow, showers in the edge communities northward into Oklahoma will continue into the morning with 20% to 30% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will cool by slightly and winds will shift from the previous southern direction to a northwest to westerly direction at moderate levels on the Plateau. In Oklahoma winds will remain from the southwest until the afternoon when the switch, coming from the north. Some gustiness is expected throughout the day. Tomorrow night will see partly cloudy conditions region wide with temperatures in the 20’s to 30’s from Texas to Oklahoma. Winds will be predominantly from the north and moderate across the region.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due north crossing Oklahoma and then into Kansas and beyond on very strong winds. The Air mass begins relatively heavy but becomes buoyant and thus lift is associated with the northward pathway at some distance from the region. Cloudy conditions but warm temperatures will occur across the Arbuckle Mountains with dry conditions and strong winds. Cloudy skies will occur this afternoon and tonight with an increasing chance of precipitation overnight. Winds will continue to be strong. Tomorrow will continue to be partly cloudy with temperatures cooling reaching the upper 50’s and low 60’s. A chance of rain will occur in the morning then clear as the strong southerly winds slacken and reduce the humidity as northerly winds take over tomorrow evening and overnight.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Very good conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Cloudy conditions with strong winds and temperatures in the 70’s occur today across Oklahoma. There is an increase in humidity tonight with a building chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow rain will continue in the morning and then condition clear but become cooler as a storm system crosses the area to the north. Pollination should occur today with the warm conditions in the area where the tree population grows. The combination of strong winds and warm temperatures should aid in the entrainment and long distance travel of pollen from the population northward. For those reasons a High Threat to communities due north of the population in the Arbuckle Mountains may be impacted. Pollen from the larger populations in central Texas will also be moving in the same direction and add to the overall concentrations in the atmosphere. If rain overnight occurs broadly entrained pollen will probably be washed from the atmosphere clearing the air. Additional pollen tomorrow is possible with clearing skies in the afternoon, however the amount should be reduced and thus only a moderate threat exists.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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