The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, December 31 - TX/OK: The region today will be cooling off as a dominant northerly breeze bring colder air across Oklahoma and into Texas. Today’s temperatures will be moderate but tonight the region will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds will begin from the west then shift, coming out of the north tonight and tomorrow. Regionally the skies will be partly cloudy to partly sunny and dry. In Oklahoma today’s high temperatures will get into the mid to lower 50s with partly sunny skies and winds starting from the west but shifting to the north overnight. Winds will be strong this afternoon with some gustiness but calm into the evening hours and overnight. High temperatures tomorrow will only reach into the upper 30s to low 40s with clear and sunny conditions in most areas. Saturday night low temperatures are expected in the teens under clear skies and light winds. Across Texas Temperatures today will be in the lower 60s north to lower 70s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Skies will be partly sunny to partly cloudy towards the west although there is no predicted chance of precipitation. Winds will start out lite but build during the afternoon from the north to northwest, stronger winds are expected in western regions compared to the eastern edge communities. Tonight lows will be in the upper 20s towards the west and lower 30s towards the east. Winds will be light and from the north region wide. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the east with partly cloudy conditions west. High temperatures range from the lower 50s to the low 60s with light northerly breezes predominating from the north. Into the evening skies will clear and cold conditions return with low temperatures in the mid to low 20s in western communities and towards Oklahoma. Low temperatures in the communities surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Winds will remain light but switch from northerly to a northeasterly and easterly direction

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south on northerly breezes before turning and heading northward again sometime tomorrow.. Skies will be partly sunny today and tomorrow in the southern edge communities and partly cloudy over the Edwards Plateau and to the west. Temperatures will moderate to the 60s in most places but reaching the lower 70s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds today will start from the northwest at light to moderate conditions, then become predominantly from the north overnight and into tomorrow shifting to a northeasterly direction tomorrow night. These winds will be cold dense air from the north so temperatures will hover around freezing tonight. Tomorrow’s high will cool into the 50s to low 60s in most areas and then tomorrow night into the mid to lower 20s and low 30s. On the dense cold air pollen that is dropping with highs only in the lower 50s today, the upper 30s to low 40s tomorrow and will below freezing both nights. Winds will be moderate today but falling off as the cold air incursion from the north occurs. The cold air body will have little buoyancy and thus the entrainment and travel potential of pollen that is release will be restricted. Conditions tomorrow will deteriorate as the daytime highs are not expected to be much above the threshold for pollen dispersal. Winds will continue to slacken especially heading into the nighttime hours.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport exist today and tomorrow. Sunny conditions but with light to moderate winds today, decreasing in strength towards tomorrow. Temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s will occur today across the Edwards Plateau, especially the southern area. Cooling will begin this afternoon into tomorrow as dense cold air move southward over the region. High temperatures will be in the lower 50’s to the mid 60’s region wide. Pollination will occur today and tomorrow but may be somewhat restricted tomorrow with cooler daytime temperatures and much colder nighttime conditions. The occurrence of cold dense air will lead to reduced entrainment and travel as the trajectories look to move close to the ground where deposition is greatest. Dense cold air from the north will take any pollen southward. For these reasons there is a moderate threat of pollen across the Edwards Plateau and into southern Texas today and tomorrow. Beginning tomorrow winds in the western portion of the forecast area will turn from the east and then southeast as the cold air begins to move onward.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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