The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:20 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 20 – TX/OK: The weather today will be cloudy to the north as the remnants of the yesterday’s winter storm continues to move to the east. Central Oklahoma and northward will continue to have a slight chance of rain and sleet during the day. Across Texas sunny to partly sunny skies will predominate. Temperatures will be in the lower 50’s to the north, climbing into the lower 60’s along the southern edge of the Edward’s Plateau communities. Winds across the region will be moderate from the west to northwest across the area. Tonight partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the mid-20’s to the north and west, moderating into the 30’s in the edge communities including San Antonio to Austin and north towards Waco. Winds northward will remain from the west, whereas across Texas winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Tomorrow morning partly cloudy skies will remain to the north and along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau and to the west mostly to partly sunny skies will occur. Temperatures across the entire forecast area will be in the 50’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels, from the southwest in the northern areas and out of the south to southeast across the eastern and southern areas of the Edwards Plateau. Edge communities will begin from the north then the winds will come out of the east later in the day. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail. The Edwards Plateau and to the west will remain, but the edge communities from San Antonio around to Austin and north toward Dallas has a significant chance of showers, thunderstorms and rain. These areas will see nighttime temperatures falling into the 40’s whereas the remaining areas to the west will be cooler, into the mid 30’s. The precipitation will be moving in on light easterly winds whereas the drier areas will be predominated by winds from the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Southern Oklahoma move to the east on persistent westerly winds. Mostly cloudy skies will occur across the Oklahoma region with temperatures only in the upper 40’s and winds from the west at moderate levels (15-20 mph). A chance of rain and sleet occurred in Oklahoma City and northward today. The atmosphere appears to be stable initially but becomes dense as it travels to the east and flows along the ground for most of the trajectory pathway. To the south, warmer and sunny conditions will prevail, but northerly winds will direct those trajectories southward. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20’s and low 30’s then bounce back up into the mid 50’s tomorrow. Currently there is no indication that the trees in southern Oklahoma are shedding pollen. There is a trace of pollen showing in the samplers along the southern Edwards Plateau, but no indication yet of pollen release further north.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Partly cloudy skies with cool temperatures and wind from the west will in southern Oklahoma today and tomorrow. There has been a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio. However there has not been a significant release yet detected anywhere else. The potential for pollen release is considered poor and there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen..

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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