The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 20 – TX/OK: The weather today will be cloudy to the north as the remnants of the yesterday’s winter storm continues to move to the east. Central Oklahoma and northward will continue to have a slight chance of rain and sleet during the day. Across Texas sunny to partly sunny skies will predominate. Temperatures will be in the lower 50’s to the north, climbing into the lower 60’s along the southern edge of the Edward’s Plateau communities. Winds across the region will be moderate from the west to northwest across the area. Tonight partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures in the mid-20’s to the north and west, moderating into the 30’s in the edge communities including San Antonio to Austin and north towards Waco. Winds northward will remain from the west, whereas across Texas winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Tomorrow morning partly cloudy skies will remain to the north and along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau and to the west mostly to partly sunny skies will occur. Temperatures across the entire forecast area will be in the 50’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels, from the southwest in the northern areas and out of the south to southeast across the eastern and southern areas of the Edwards Plateau. Edge communities will begin from the north then the winds will come out of the east later in the day. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail. The Edwards Plateau and to the west will remain, but the edge communities from San Antonio around to Austin and north toward Dallas has a significant chance of showers, thunderstorms and rain. These areas will see nighttime temperatures falling into the 40’s whereas the remaining areas to the west will be cooler, into the mid 30’s. The precipitation will be moving in on light easterly winds whereas the drier areas will be predominated by winds from the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves southward on northwesterly winds, then circles to the west over northern Mexico before turning northward again at the end of the 48 hour period. Mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures along with moderate winds will occur today. Tonight skies will be mostly clear in the edge communities but with partly cloudy skies to the west. The atmosphere appears stable for the next 12 to 24 hours with the trajectories remaining at about the same level if not sinking downwards. Tomorrow the day will begin similarly, but the edge communities will begin to see an increase in clouds from the east resulting in the potential of precipitation overnight. Over the entire region temperatures will remain seasonal with lows tonight below freezing across the Plateau and above in the edge communities. Tomorrow night temperatures will rise by about 5 to 10 degrees.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Mostly sunny skies with moderate temperatures and wind speeds will occur south of Oklahoma across the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow. There has been a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio. However there has not been a significant release yet detected anywhere else. The potential for pollen release is considered poor and there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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