The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 20 December 2011
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 20 – TX/OK:
The weather today will be cloudy to the north as the remnants of the yesterday’s winter storm continues to move
to the east. Central Oklahoma and northward will continue to have a slight chance of rain and sleet during the
day. Across Texas sunny to partly sunny skies will predominate. Temperatures will be in the lower 50’s to the
north, climbing into the lower 60’s along the southern edge of the Edward’s Plateau communities. Winds across
the region will be moderate from the west to northwest across the area. Tonight partly cloudy skies will return
with temperatures in the mid-20’s to the north and west, moderating into the 30’s in the edge communities including
San Antonio to Austin and north towards Waco. Winds northward will remain from the west, whereas across Texas
winds will be from the north at moderate levels. Tomorrow morning partly cloudy skies will remain to the north
and along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau and to the west mostly to partly sunny skies
will occur. Temperatures across the entire forecast area will be in the 50’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels,
from the southwest in the northern areas and out of the south to southeast across the eastern and southern areas
of the Edwards Plateau. Edge communities will begin from the north then the winds will come out of the east later
in the day. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail. The Edwards Plateau and to the west
will remain, but the edge communities from San Antonio around to Austin and north toward Dallas has a significant
chance of showers, thunderstorms and rain. These areas will see nighttime temperatures falling into the 40’s whereas
the remaining areas to the west will be cooler, into the mid 30’s. The precipitation will be moving in on light
easterly winds whereas the drier areas will be predominated by winds from the southwest.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves southward on northwesterly winds,
then circles to the west over northern Mexico before turning northward again at the end of the 48 hour period.
Mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures along with moderate winds will occur today. Tonight skies will be
mostly clear in the edge communities but with partly cloudy skies to the west. The atmosphere appears stable for
the next 12 to 24 hours with the trajectories remaining at about the same level if not sinking downwards. Tomorrow
the day will begin similarly, but the edge communities will begin to see an increase in clouds from the east resulting
in the potential of precipitation overnight. Over the entire region temperatures will remain seasonal with lows
tonight below freezing across the Plateau and above in the edge communities. Tomorrow night temperatures will
rise by about 5 to 10 degrees.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release
today and tomorrow with moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Mostly sunny skies
with moderate temperatures and wind speeds will occur south of Oklahoma across the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow.
There has been a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio.
However there has not been a significant release yet detected anywhere else. The potential for pollen release
is considered poor and there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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