The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 21 – TX/OK: The weather today will remain partly cloudy to the north as well as across the western portions of Texas. Sunny conditions will prevail in the Dallas area but along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy skies will occur. Temperatures will be seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 50s in most areas. Winds will be from the west and southwest to the north and from the southeast to east across the southern and western areas of the Plateau. Overnight partly to mostly cloudy conditions will build with an increasing chance of rain (70%) across the southern edge communities between San Antonio and Austin. The chance of rain diminishes towards the north, however Dallas will have a 30% chance of showers. A 20% chance of precipitation will occur across the Plateau. Temperatures will drop to the mid 30’s to the west and the low to mid 40’s in the edge communities. Winds will remain from the southwest over the Plateau whereas from San Antonio to Austin and north to Dallas winds will begin from the east to southeast, switching to a more northerly direction after midnight. Tomorrow will be mild and warmer across the southern regions but cool across Oklahoma. In Oklahoma mostly to partly cloudy conditions will begin the day with increasing clouds into the evening. Temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s with a southwest wind of 10 mph. Overnight cloudy skies will prevail, temperatures will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s and there is a 20% chance of rain along the OK/TX border changing to a rain and snow mix further north. Tomorrow in Texas conditions will be partly sunny to sunny in the Dallas area with increasing cloudiness towards the west and south. Both San Antonio and Austin will have lingering showers with a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will be in the 60’s across the region with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy skies will build in, with temperatures in the lower 30’s to the west and lower 40’s in other areas. Winds will be from the north across the Edwards Plateau region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves northward on southeasterly winds, moving north over Oklahoma in the next 24 to 48 hours. Winds will not be strong in the next 48 hours thus the trajectories will remain relatively close. Mostly cloudy and partly cloudy skies with seasonal temperatures in the 50s and low 60’s will occur today. Tonight skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in the edge communities with a significant chance of precipitation tonight from San Antonio, north into the Dallas area. The atmosphere appears relatively stable for the next 12 to 24 hours with the trajectories then rising after that. Tomorrow the day will begin similarly, but with some clearing to the north and in the edge communities. Temperatures will rise into the 60’s with a dominant moderate northwest wind over the region. Tomorrow night temperatures will be close to freezing over the Plateau, with warmer temperatures in the 40’s in the edge communities north toward the Dallas/Fort Worth regional area. Wind will remain moderate from the North.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with moderately warm temperatures and wind speeds will across Texas today. Tonight, rain showers across the Edwards Plateau especially in the edge communities should clear the air of any particulate matter. There continues to be a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio. However there has not been a significant release yet detected anywhere else. The potential for pollen release is thought to be just starting but there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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