The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:22 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 22 – TX/OK: The weather today will remain seasonally cool across Oklahoma with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s across the region. Winds will start light but increase to moderate conditions from the northeast this afternoon. To the south sunny and mostly sunny conditions will prevail across the Edwards Plateau. Only in Austin to San Antonio region will lingering morning showers threaten. A 30% chance of showers exists for Austin this morning whereas the San Antonio area has a 20% chance. Skies in these areas should clear into the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm and in the 60’s in most areas. The southernmost edge communities may reach 70 this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will build again with temperatures dropping into the low 40s in the edge communities and into the 30’s on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain moderate (10 – 20 mph) from the north across the region. Tomorrow temperatures drop back into the 40’s and low 50’s region wide. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures near 40 and a northerly wind. In Texas mostly cloudy conditions will prevail in the edge communities with cloudy skies over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will reach into the low 50’s in the San Antonio region, otherwise temperatures in the 40’s will be the rule. Winds will increase their strength (15-20 mph) and remain from the north to northeast. Tomorrow night temperatures will dip into the upper 30’s along the edge of the Edwards Plateau and cool to the upper 20’s across the Edwards Plateu. Cloudy skies and a 20% chance of snow is forecast towards the west, with rain and rain showers possible on the eastern Plateau and in the edge communities. Winds will return to moderate conditions and remain from the north to northeast.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Southern Oklahoma move to the south on light and variable northerly winds towards central Texas. Cold air at the surface will move the furthest whereas at upper levels will be relatively calm conditions. Mostly cloudy skies will occur across the Oklahoma region with temperatures in the mid 50’s along the border with Texas falling into the 40’s further north.. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will buil with temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s and a 20% chance of rain or snow. Winds will increase to moderate conditions remaining from the north. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will remain with high temperatures barely getting into the 40’s. Winds will remain from the north at low levels. Tomorrow night temperatures drop into the 20’s with light winds. There is a 10% chance of light snow along the border with Texas.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** poor to moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Currently there is no indication that the trees in southern Oklahoma are shedding pollen. There is a trace of pollen showing in the samplers along the southern Edwards Plateau, but no indication yet of pollen release further north. Today will be seasonally warm across the region but will cool significantly for tomorrow as a dominant northerly wind pattern brings cold air south across the southern Great Plains. Mostly cloudy skies today and partly cloudy skies tomorrow should restrain any potential pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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