The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 22 – TX/OK: The weather today will remain seasonally cool across Oklahoma with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s across the region. Winds will start light but increase to moderate conditions from the northeast this afternoon. To the south sunny and mostly sunny conditions will prevail across the Edwards Plateau. Only in Austin to San Antonio region will lingering morning showers threaten. A 30% chance of showers exists for Austin this morning whereas the San Antonio area has a 20% chance. Skies in these areas should clear into the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm and in the 60’s in most areas. The southernmost edge communities may reach 70 this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will build again with temperatures dropping into the low 40s in the edge communities and into the 30’s on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain moderate (10 – 20 mph) from the north across the region. Tomorrow temperatures drop back into the 40’s and low 50’s region wide. In Oklahoma partly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures near 40 and a northerly wind. In Texas mostly cloudy conditions will prevail in the edge communities with cloudy skies over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will reach into the low 50’s in the San Antonio region, otherwise temperatures in the 40’s will be the rule. Winds will increase their strength (15-20 mph) and remain from the north to northeast. Tomorrow night temperatures will dip into the upper 30’s along the edge of the Edwards Plateau and cool to the upper 20’s across the Edwards Plateu. Cloudy skies and a 20% chance of snow is forecast towards the west, with rain and rain showers possible on the eastern Plateau and in the edge communities. Winds will return to moderate conditions and remain from the north to northeast.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves northward on southeasterly winds, moving north over Oklahoma in the next 24 to 48 hours. Winds will not be strong in the next 48 hours thus the trajectories will remain relatively close. Mostly cloudy and partly cloudy skies with seasonal temperatures in the 50s and low 60’s will occur today. Tonight skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in the edge communities with a significant chance of precipitation tonight from San Antonio, north into the Dallas area. The atmosphere appears relatively stable for the next 12 to 24 hours with the trajectories then rising after that. Tomorrow the day will begin similarly, but with some clearing to the north and in the edge communities. Temperatures will rise into the 60’s with a dominant moderate northwest wind over the region. Tomorrow night temperatures will be close to freezing over the Plateau, with warmer temperatures in the 40’s in the edge communities north toward the Dallas/Fort Worth regional area. Wind will remain moderate from the North.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today with poor conditions tomorrow with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport but poor conditions tomorrow. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with a chance of showers this AM in the southern edge communities. Temperatures will be warm, in the 60’s to low 70’s. Winds will swirl over central Texas throughout the day with a dominant northerly wind taking over this afternoon and into the evening. Tomorrow will be much cooler with cloudy skies and increasing northerly winds. Tomorrow night most of the Plateau will have a chance of rain to the east and snow showers to the west. There continues to be a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio. Showers overnight may have washed most of it out of the atmosphere, but with warm conditions a moderate level may be present today. In other areas, however, there has not been a significant release yet detected. The potential for pollen release is thought to be just starting but there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page