The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:23 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, December 23 – TX/OK: The weather today will be cool across the region with partly cloudy skies north and cloudy skies south. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40’s across Oklahoma as well as much of Texas. The western portions of the area will be in the low 40’s to upper 30’s. The southernmost portion of the Edwards Plateau edge communities, that are usually the warmest areas, will struggle to get into the low 50’s. Regional winds will be from the north to northeast at moderate levels (10 to 15 mph), declining into the evening hours to the north but maintaining moderate levels south of Oklahoma. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20’s to the north and 30’s in other areas. The dryer western areas of the Edwards Plateau will drop into the low 30’s to mid-20’s. South of Dallas the chance of precipitation increases with rain expected in the edge communities and a rain/snow mix across the plateau. Rain and snow is expected in the western Edward Plateau communities. Tomorrow temperatures will remain cold with most areas remaining in the 40’s. The chance of precipitation increases across the region, especially in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau cold temperatures will remain and the precipitation may be a rain/snow mix early eventually changing to mostly rain. Winds will continue to be moderate and from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tomorrow night the rain and rain/snow mix will remain. Temperatures will be in the 30’s on the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities as well as northward towards Oklahoma. In the area of the western Edwards Plateau, temperatures will dip again into the mid 20’s. Any precipitation should fall as snow overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Southern Oklahoma move to the southwest on moderate north to northeasterly winds across central Texas. Cold air will dominate across the region. Partly cloudy skies will occur across the Oklahoma region today with temperatures in the mid 40’s along the border with Texas falling into the low 40’s further north. Tonight cloudy skies will build with temperatures in the mid 20’s. Winds will drop to light and variable conditions. Tomorrow partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will remain with high temperatures just getting into the upper 40’s. Winds will remain light and variable. Tomorrow night temperatures drop into the low 30’s in southern Oklahoma with light winds. There is a 30% chance of rain/snow mix along the border with Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Currently there is no indication that the trees in southern Oklahoma are shedding pollen. There is a trace of pollen showing in the samplers along the southern Edwards Plateau, but no indication yet of pollen release further north. Today will be cold across the region with highs in the 40’s today and tomorrow and nighttime temperatures dipping into the 20’s. Winds will drop to light and variable this afternoon and remain that way for the next day. There is a 30% chance of rain/snow mix tomorrow night. Cloudy skies today and partly cloudy skies tomorrow along with cold conditions should restrain any potential pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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