The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, December 23 – TX/OK: The weather today will be cool across the region with partly cloudy skies north and cloudy skies south. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40’s across Oklahoma as well as much of Texas. The western portions of the area will be in the low 40’s to upper 30’s. The southernmost portion of the Edwards Plateau edge communities, that are usually the warmest areas, will struggle to get into the low 50’s. Regional winds will be from the north to northeast at moderate levels (10 to 15 mph), declining into the evening hours to the north but maintaining moderate levels south of Oklahoma. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20’s to the north and 30’s in other areas. The dryer western areas of the Edwards Plateau will drop into the low 30’s to mid-20’s. South of Dallas the chance of precipitation increases with rain expected in the edge communities and a rain/snow mix across the plateau. Rain and snow is expected in the western Edward Plateau communities. Tomorrow temperatures will remain cold with most areas remaining in the 40’s. The chance of precipitation increases across the region, especially in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau cold temperatures will remain and the precipitation may be a rain/snow mix early eventually changing to mostly rain. Winds will continue to be moderate and from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tomorrow night the rain and rain/snow mix will remain. Temperatures will be in the 30’s on the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities as well as northward towards Oklahoma. In the area of the western Edwards Plateau, temperatures will dip again into the mid 20’s. Any precipitation should fall as snow overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves southward on north to northeasterly winds, then to the west over northern Mexico and New Mexico over the next 24 to 48 hours. Winds will be moderate and steady over the next 48 hours. The trajectories appear to be caught up with the moisture moving in from the gulf bringing precipitation to the region tonight and tomorrow. Cloudy and mostly cloudy skies with cold temperatures in the 40s will dominate today. Tonight skies will be cloudy with a increasing chance of precipitation across the Edwards Plateau and its edge communities. Tomorrow the day will begin with a greater chance of precipitation across the Edwards Plateau and north to the border country with Oklahoma. Winds will remain at moderate levels from the north to northeast and temperatures will stay in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s across the region. The edge communities have the greatest chance of precipitation in the form of rain, whereas the Edwards Plateau will have a chance of snow and rain/snow mix. Tomorrow night temperatures will be close to freezing to the south and into the mid 20’s in the western portions of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain moderate from the North to northwest.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport as well. Cloudy skies today and tomorrow with dry conditions today but a chance of precipitation begins tonight and will continue tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temperatures will be cold, in the 30’s and 40’s across the region. Winds will move the trajectories to the west over the next 48 hours, but the area will remain in a predominantly north to northeasterly wind pattern. Tomorrow will be much cooler with cloudy skies and an increasing chance of precipitation, diminishing somewhat overnight. There continues to be a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio. However, cold conditions and showers overnight, tomorrow and tomorrow night will restrain pollination and any pollen released will be washed out of the atmosphere as the chance of precipitation increases. In other areas there has not been a significant release yet detected. The potential for pollen release is thought to be just starting but there is no indication that the primary populations have begun releasing pollen.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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