The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 24; Sunday, December 25 – TX/OK: The weather today will be cool and cloudy. Rain is forecast across most of the region, starting at the Oklahoma/Texas border southward across Texas. The chance of rain will be around 20% in southern Oklahoma rising to 100% in the edge communities surrounding the southern and eastern Edwards Plateau. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 40’s north, and in the 30’s most of the day across the western communities of the Edwards Plateau. The western areas of Texas may see a rain and snow mix. In Oklahoma, winds will be light and variable. Across Texas winds will be light to moderate (10 to 15 mph) from the north. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40’s across Oklahoma as well as much of Texas. The western portions of the area will be in the low 40’s to upper 30’s. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the 30’s in most areas, while those that were only in the 30’s during the day will fall into the 20’s. Precipitation will continue through the night with rain in the edge communities and a chance of rain and snow across the Plateau. Winds will remain light and variable to the north and moderate elsewhere. The winds will remain from the north. On Christmas day, mostly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma, southward into Texas especially along the eastern areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The western Edwards Plateau will be cloudy but with no chance of rain. The chance of precipitation will remain across the other areas including the southern edge communities such as San Antonio, especially in the morning then beginning to clear after noon. Temperatures will warm into the low 50’s in the edge communities whereas the Plateau communities will remain in the 40’s. Winds will remain from the north and northwest at moderate levels. Christmas night, skies will start to clear. A slight chance of rain will exist in the northern communities including areas of Oklahoma and north Texas. The rest of the region will be clearing with temperatures in the mid 30’s to the east and mid 20’s across the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma moves westward on north to northeasterly winds, moving across south central Oklahoma into northern Texas. Winds will be light and variable over the next 48 hours. Cloudy and mostly cloudy skies with cold temperatures in the 40s will dominate today with the chance of precipitation over the entire Juniperus ashei population in Oklahoma and Texas. Tonight skies will remain cloudy with precipitation, especially in the southerly edge communities northwards toward the Oklahoma border and the southern Oklahoma population. Tomorrow the day will begin with showers of mixed rain and snow. Winds will remain at light and variable and temperatures will warm a bit, with high temperatures expected in the mid 40’s. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the 30’s. Winds will remain moderate from the North to northwest.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with poor conditions for entrainment and transport as well. Cloudy skies today and tomorrow with precipitation building today, rain tonight and some residual showers of rain and snow into tomorrow morning. High temperatures will only reach into the low 40’s across the region. Winds will move the trajectories to the south, southwest over the next 48 hours. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with cloudy skies and showers into tomorrow night. Although a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio, poor conditions for release, cold air temperatures and precipitation make for very poor conditions for any kind of pollen release as well as entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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