The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 26 – TX/OK: The weather today will be recovering from the showers that have occurred over the holidays. Cool and cloudy conditions occur today across Oklahoma and north Texas in the morning with a 50% chance of precipitation north and 30% chance south in the Dallas area. Further to the south sunny and partly sunny conditions will occur in the edge communities of the Edwards Plateau. On the plateau partly cloudy conditions will remain. Temperatures to the north will reach into the upper 40’s whereas warmer conditions will dominate to the south. Across the plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50’s rising to the upper 50’s and low 60’s along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be light and variable early to the north but a dominant westerly wind pattern will build across the region. On the western areas of the Plateau moderate winds from the west will be at or above 15 miles per hour. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will remain with temperatures in the upper 20’s in central Oklahoma and the mid- to low-30s towards the border with Texas and in north Texas. Winds will die down but remain from the west. To the south clear skies overnight will result in temperatures in the mid-30’s in the edge communities and the mid- to upper-20’s to the west, on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain from the west at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow sunny skies will dominate the region south of central Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warming into the mid 50’s up to the mid to lower 60’s. Winds will be primarily from the north, but with a few areas seeing them from the northwest. Winds will relax to light levels in most areas. There is no predicted precipitation tomorrow. Tomorrow night clear skies will remain in most areas. Temperatures will be in the low- to mid-30’s across the region and winds will be from the northeast around the edge of the Edwards Plateau, and from the south in the western sections of the plateau.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories across southern Oklahoma move eastward on moderate westerlies. This morning there is a 50% chance of rain and showers across the northern region. Temperatures will only get into the upper 40’s. Tonight and tomorrow, moderate winds, clearing skies and warmer temperatures will build. Tomorrow conditions should improve significantly. Drying conditions after the last couple of days will provide for favorable conditions for the developing pollination season. The winds will be buoyant over southern Oklahoma but as they move colder denser air will bring most down to ground level, downwind. Temperatures will be mild in the 50’s tomorrow. Winds will remain at light levels moving from the west today to a more northerly direction by tomorrow. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the low 30’s in the border region. Winds will die tomorrow night to light and variable conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport. Cloudy skies today with a chance of rain and cold temperatures will reduce the chance of any pollination. Tomorrow, however, clearing skies and high temperatures in the mid to low 50’s will increase the chance of pollination. Winds will be light and from the north tomorrow. Winds today will move the trajectories due east, over the next 48 hours. Tomorrow will be warmer with a greater chance of pollination. Although a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio, poor conditions for release, cold air temperatures and precipitation have made for poor conditions for any kind of pollen release as well as entrainment and travel. However the warming expected tomorrow with sunny skies may initiate some cone ripening, pollen dispersal, as well as entrainment and travel away from the tree populations. Today will remain cold, with rain this morning therefore no pollination is expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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