The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, December 26 – TX/OK: The weather today will be recovering from the showers that have occurred over the holidays. Cool and cloudy conditions occur today across Oklahoma and north Texas in the morning with a 50% chance of precipitation north and 30% chance south in the Dallas area. Further to the south sunny and partly sunny conditions will occur in the edge communities of the Edwards Plateau. On the plateau partly cloudy conditions will remain. Temperatures to the north will reach into the upper 40’s whereas warmer conditions will dominate to the south. Across the plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50’s rising to the upper 50’s and low 60’s along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be light and variable early to the north but a dominant westerly wind pattern will build across the region. On the western areas of the Plateau moderate winds from the west will be at or above 15 miles per hour. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will remain with temperatures in the upper 20’s in central Oklahoma and the mid- to low-30s towards the border with Texas and in north Texas. Winds will die down but remain from the west. To the south clear skies overnight will result in temperatures in the mid-30’s in the edge communities and the mid- to upper-20’s to the west, on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain from the west at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow sunny skies will dominate the region south of central Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warming into the mid 50’s up to the mid to lower 60’s. Winds will be primarily from the north, but with a few areas seeing them from the northwest. Winds will relax to light levels in most areas. There is no predicted precipitation tomorrow. Tomorrow night clear skies will remain in most areas. Temperatures will be in the low- to mid-30’s across the region and winds will be from the northeast around the edge of the Edwards Plateau, and from the south in the western sections of the plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move eastward on moderate westerlies. Moderate winds, clearing skies and warmer temperatures will build today. Tomorrow conditions should improve significantly. Drying conditions after the last couple of days will provide for favorable conditions for the developing pollination season. The winds will be buoyant over Texas but as they move colder denser air will bring most down to ground level. Tomorrow the day will dawn with sunny skies over most of the area, temperatures will be mild in the 50’s and 60’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels from the west and northwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the 30’s across the region, with freezing conditions to the west. Winds will remain moderate but will start to shift with eastern areas seeing northeasterly winds and areas to the west coming from the south.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today and Moderate Tomorrow *** Low to moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport as well. Clearing skies today and clear skies tomorrow with temperatures warming and moderate winds across the region are expected. High temperatures will reach into the 40’s and 50’s across the region today but add another 10 degrees tomorrow. Winds will move the trajectories to the east, over the next 48 hours with buoyant conditions over Texas but the trajectories loose elevation this evening towards the east. Tomorrow will be warmer with sunny skies and temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s. Although only a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio and Austin, warming temperatures will raise the potential for release. Warming temperatures, moderate buoyant winds make for moderate conditions today that will improve to good conditions tomorrow..

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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