The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 27 – TX/OK: The region will be dominated by sunny skies and temperatures will be warming into the mid 50’s up to the mid to lower 60’s. Winds will be moderate from the north, with a few areas, especially in Oklahoma seeing the winds coming from the northwest. The warmest temperatures will occur in the edge communities and the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau with temperatures expected in the mid to lower 60’s. Tonight winds will relax to light levels in most areas. Temperatures will fall into the low 30’s in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau most areas will fall below freezing with readings in the upper 20’s. The region should be mostly clear, adding to the cooling effect. Tomorrow will be sunny once again. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to climb into the 50’s and 60’s across with the warmest temperatures across the Edwards Plateau. Readings in the low to mid 60’s will be common across the central and southern Edwards Plateau region both on the plateau and in the edge communities. There is no predicted precipitation tomorrow. Winds will shift from today’s northerly direction, changing to a southerly wind tonight and tomorrow. The Plateau region will retain a mostly northwesterly wind throughout the forecast period. Tomorrow night clear conditions will bring lows on the Plateau back to the 20’s whereas the surrounding areas will be milder with lows in the mid to upper 30’s, remaining near 40 in many areas.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories across southern Oklahoma move southward toward the border area on light winds then are turned back north overnight and remain on a north to northeasterly direction tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sunny skies will dominate with high temperatures reaching into mid to upper 50’s. Tonight, winds will be light and low temperatures will hover near freezing. Light and variable winds will occur then begin to build tomorrow coming from the south to southwesterly direction at moderate strength. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to near freezing with light and variable winds once again.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with warming conditions will provide good conditions for pollination. Winds will be stable, with moderate conditions today, but then will become light and variable overnight. Temperatures will be near freezing tonight then back to similar conditions tomorrow. The trajectories will move initially southward then back to the north and northeast. The atmosphere will be stable and temperatures will be moderate so good conditions exist for pollination. Although a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio and Austin, cone ripening in southern Oklahoma has yet to be documented. We wait for a clear signal of pollen dispersal, although the good conditions in the next few days may mark it initiation. Therefore communities in central Oklahoma may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere. We will list today as moderate, but tomorrow may bring a more significant threat.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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