The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 27 – TX/OK: The region will be dominated by sunny skies and temperatures will be warming into the mid 50’s up to the mid to lower 60’s. Winds will be moderate from the north, with a few areas, especially in Oklahoma seeing the winds coming from the northwest. The warmest temperatures will occur in the edge communities and the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau with temperatures expected in the mid to lower 60’s. Tonight winds will relax to light levels in most areas. Temperatures will fall into the low 30’s in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau most areas will fall below freezing with readings in the upper 20’s. The region should be mostly clear, adding to the cooling effect. Tomorrow will be sunny once again. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to climb into the 50’s and 60’s with the warmest temperatures across the Edwards Plateau. Readings in the low to mid 60’s will be common across the central and southern Edwards Plateau region both on the plateau and in the edge communities. There is no predicted precipitation tomorrow. Winds will shift from today’s northerly direction, changing to a southerly wind tonight and tomorrow. The Plateau region will retain a mostly northwesterly wind throughout the forecast period. Tomorrow night clear conditions will bring lows on the Plateau back to the 20’s whereas the surrounding areas will be milder with lows in the mid to upper 30’s, remaining near 40 in many areas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward initially on light to moderate winds. Over the forecast period the winds will shift returning to a southerly breeze tonight in most regions. The trajectories will pivot around and start moving northward moving northward into central Oklahoma. On the Plateau the southerly winds will begin overnight but then switch back to a northwesterly direction tomorrow during the day and tomorrow night. In the other areas, such as the edge communities the switch from northeasterly winds will occur later tonight and then remain from the south both tomorrow and tomorrow night. The trajectories will move northward at that point. Dry conditions after the last couple of days will provide favorable conditions for the developing pollination season. The winds will be stable as they move over Texas. Tomorrow the day will dawn with sunny skies and temperatures will build to similar readings as today, in the 50’s and 60’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels from the south. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the 30’s across the region, with freezing conditions to the west on the Plateau. Warmer conditions are expected in the surrounding communities overnight.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport as well. Clear skies today and clear skies tomorrow with temperatures warming and moderate winds across the region are expected. High temperatures will reach into the 50’s to low 60’s across the region today building tomorrow by another 4 to 5 degrees. Winds will move the trajectories to the south, then circle back to the north, over the next 48 hours with stable atmospheric conditions over Texas. Although only a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio and Austin, warming temperatures will raise the potential for release. Warming temperatures, stable winds make for moderate conditions today that will continue to be good conditions tomorrow. Any pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move northward over Northern Texas into central Oklahoma.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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