The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 28 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies and warm temperatures with readings in the 60’s in all regions south of central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City is expected to reach the upper 50’s today, to the south low 60’s will be the rule. Winds today will be from the south at moderate conditions today. This afternoon winds in the southern areas will be from the southwest and will build during the afternoon to moderate conditions. Tonight clear skies will prevail with all areas in the mid 30’s, above freezing, except for the western Edwards Plateau communities. In the western areas temperatures will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will calm overnight with light and variable conditions to the north. To the south across Texas winds will be light and mostly from the west to southwest. In the southwestern areas of the Plateau, Sonora towards San Antonio a north to northwestern flow will prevail. Tomorrow sunny and warm conditions will continue with a rise in temperatures of five to six degrees. The Edwards Plateau communities will see the upper 60’s for their high temperature, whereas Dallas and Austin will be in the mid 60’s. Winds will remain light (5 to 10 mph) from the southwest, except for the eastern edge communities where a northwestern flow will begin the day but then will switch to a southwest flow after noon. Tomorrow night clear to mostly clear skies will occur. Temperatures will be above freezing for most areas. On the Plateau lows will dip into the mid 30’s with upper 30’s across Oklahoma and in the low 40’s south of the Texas border around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories across southern Oklahoma move northeastward toward the border area of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas on light winds from the south and southwest. Tonight light and variable winds will occur, then moderate southwesterly winds will return tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sunny skies will dominate with high temperatures reaching into the low 60’s today and mid to upper 60’s tomorrow. Tonight, winds will be light and low temperatures will bottom out in the mid 30’s. Tomorrow the light and variable winds will begin to build coming from the south to southwesterly direction at light to moderate strength. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the upper 30’s with light and variable winds, once again.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Good conditions for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with warming conditions will provide good conditions for pollination. Winds will be stable, with moderate conditions today, but then will become light and variable overnight. Temperatures will be above freezing tonight then back to similar conditions tomorrow. The trajectories will move initially northeasterly in a stable atmosphere. Good conditions exist for pollination, however, a check on the southern population trees yesterday, showed no pollen release currently ongoing. We wait for a clear signal of pollen dispersal, although the good conditions in the next few days may mark it initiation. Therefore communities in Oklahoma and along the trajectories may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere. We will list today as moderate, but as soon as pollination begins a more significant threat will occur.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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