The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 28 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies and warm temperatures with readings in the 60’s in all regions south of central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City is expected to reach the upper 50’s today, to the south low 60’s will be the rule. Winds today will be from the south at moderate conditions today. This afternoon winds in the southern areas will be from the southwest and will build during the afternoon to moderate conditions. Tonight clear skies will prevail with all areas in the mid 30’s, above freezing, except for the western Edwards Plateau communities. In the western areas temperatures will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will calm overnight with light and variable conditions to the north. To the south across Texas winds will be light and mostly from the west to southwest. In the southwestern areas of the Plateau, Sonora towards San Antonio a north to northwestern flow will prevail. Tomorrow sunny and warm conditions will continue with a rise in temperatures of five to six degrees. The Edwards Plateau communities will see the upper 60’s for their high temperature, whereas Dallas and Austin will be in the mid 60’s. Winds will remain light (5 to 10 mph) from the southwest, except for the eastern edge communities where a northwestern flow will begin the day but then will switch to a southwest flow after noon. Tomorrow night clear to mostly clear skies will occur. Temperatures will be above freezing for most areas. On the Plateau lows will dip into the mid 30’s with upper 30’s across Oklahoma and in the low 40’s south of the Texas border around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the central and eastern Edwards Plateau move toward the east and northeast initially on light to moderate winds. Over the forecast period the winds will continue to the northeast diagonally over Arkansas. The western most areas of the Edwards Plateau will initially move to the southeast on northwesterly winds, then shift back toward the northeast as winds shift, coming from the southwest. The mixed flow and changing wind directions will cover most of eastern Texas with winds emanating from an area with Juniperus ashei trees. Wind characteristics show relatively a buoyant atmosphere today then relatively stable conditions as it moves forward. Dry conditions after the last couple of days will provide for favorable conditions for the developing pollination season. The winds will be buoyant as they move over Texas. Tomorrow the day will dawn with sunny skies and temperatures will build to slightly warmer readings than today with high’s in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds will remain at moderate levels from the southwest in most areas, except the southwestern Plateau where winds will be from the northwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the 30’s across the region but stay above freezing..

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today and tomorrow with temperatures warming and moderate winds across the region are expected. High temperatures will reach into the 60’s across the region today building another 5 to 6 degrees tomorrow. Winds will move the trajectories across eastern Texas, then continuing on moving from the southwest to northeast across Arkansas. Over the next 48 hours stable atmospheric conditions will occur over Texas. Although only a trace of Juniperus ashei pollen has been reported in the southern most populations around San Antonio and Austin, warming temperatures will raise the potential for release. Warming temperatures, stable winds make for moderate conditions today that will continue as good conditions tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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