The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 29 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies and warm temperatures with readings in the mid to upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the region. Oklahoma City is expected to reach the upper 60’s today, to the south on the central Edward’s Plateau will be in the low 70’s. Winds today will be from the south to southwest at light levels. The Western Edward’s Plateau will increase those winds to moderate levels this afternoon. Surrounding the Edwards Plateau, winds will be light from the northwest, then switching out of the southwest this afternoon. Tonight clear skies will prevail with all areas in the mid 30’s or above freezing, except for the southwestern Edwards Plateau communities. In the western areas temperatures will be in the low 30’s at freezing. Winds will calm overnight with light and variable conditions to the north and a southwestern flow over the southern areas. Tomorrow sunny and warmer conditions will continue with a slight rise in temperatures resulting in the southern communities as well as the edge communities reaching the lower 70’s. To the north in Oklahoma temperatures in the upper 60’s are expected. Winds will remain light (5 to 10 mph) shifting and coming from the north, except for the edge communities where a light westerly wind will start in the morning but come from the south after noon. Tomorrow night clear skies will occur. There is a chance of increasing fog along the southern and eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain above freezing..

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move northeastward toward the border area of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas on light winds from the southwest. Tonight light and variable winds will occur, light to moderate northerly winds will return tomorrow. Today and tomorrow sunny skies will dominate with high temperatures reaching into the mid 60’s today and tomorrow. Tonight, winds will be light and low temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30’s. Tomorrow light and variable winds will return changing direction at a light to moderate level from the north and northeast . Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the upper 30’s with light and variable winds, once again.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with Good conditions for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with warming conditions will provide good conditions for pollination. Winds will be stable, with moderate conditions today, then will become light and variable overnight. Temperatures will be above freezing tonight then back to similar conditions tomorrow. The trajectories will move initially northeasterly in a stable atmosphere. Good conditions exist for pollination, however, a check on the southern population trees yesterday, showed no pollen release currently ongoing. We wait for a clear signal of pollen dispersal, although the good conditions in the next few days may mark pollination initiation. Therefore communities in Oklahoma and along the trajectories may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere. We will list today, once again as moderate but as soon as pollination begins a more significant threat will occur.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page