The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: -Thursday, December 29 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies and warm temperatures with readings in the mid to upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the region. Oklahoma City is expected to reach the upper 60’s today, to the south on the central Edward’s Plateau will be in the low 70’s. Winds today will be from the south to southwest at light levels. The Western Edward’s Plateau will increase those winds to moderate levels this afternoon. Surrounding the Edwards Plateau, winds will be light from the northwest, then switching out of the southwest this afternoon. Tonight clear skies will prevail with all areas in the mid 30’s or above freezing, except for the southwestern Edwards Plateau communities. In the western areas temperatures will be in the low 30’s at freezing. Winds will calm overnight with light and variable conditions to the north and a southwestern flow over the southern areas. Tomorrow sunny and warmer conditions will continue with a slight rise in temperatures resulting in the southern communities as well as the edge communities reaching the lower 70’s. To the north in Oklahoma temperatures in the upper 60’s are expected. Winds will remain light (5 to 10 mph) shifting and coming from the north, except for the edge communities where a light westerly wind will start in the morning but come from the south after noon. Tomorrow night clear skies will occur. There is a chance of increasing fog along the southern and eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain above freezing.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the central and eastern Edwards Plateau move toward the northeast and then eastward, especially at the highest levels of the atmosphere. At ground level light winds over the forecast period will cause the trajectories to not move extensively. Winds over the region are stable thus any pollen in the atmosphere will have a greater chance of being deposited and/or removed by impaction on nearby vegetation. Any pollen entrained and lifted to high levels have a chance to move significantly towards the east on upper level westerly winds. Dry conditions will prevail today and tomorrow, with a dry forecast for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Tomorrow the day will dawn with sunny skies and temperatures will build to slightly warmer readings than today with high’s in the upper 60’s to low 70’s in most places. Tomorrow night temperatures will return to the mid 30’s to upper 40’s across the region with a chance of morning fog in the edge communities Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today and tomorrow with temperatures warming and moderate winds across the region are expected. High temperatures will reach into the upper 60’s to low 70’s across the region today and tomorrow. Upper level winds will move the trajectories across eastern Texas. At lower levels most trajectories remain within the state relatively close to emmission Over the next 48 hours stable atmospheric conditions will continue over Texas. Although only a trace of Juniperus ashei has been recorded high levels may be experienced. Many areas continue to not show pollen release therefore a moderate threat occurs. However in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau pollen has been reported with higher levels yesterday in the Waco area, as well as continued small amounts in the other edge communities suggesting that the season is ramping up.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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