The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, December 31/January 1 – TX/OK: The region will remain dominated by sunny skies and warm temperatures today with readings in the mid to lower 70’s. Oklahoma City is expected to reach into the mid 70’s today as will areas to the south along the Texas/Oklahoma border region. To the south on the central Edward’s Plateau temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to the east as well as in the surrounding edge communities. Communities to the west will reach into the mid 70’s. Winds today will be from the south to the southwest across the western areas of central Texas. To the north in Oklahoma winds will be strong, but slacken to the south towards Texas. As the afternoon progresses a change will begin in the west as a northerly wind regime takes over. This change will bring light to moderate wind conditions starting north and west with the change occurring across the Edwards Plateau this evening around the time of the New Year. Temperatures will remain above freezing across the region with lows mostly in the mid 30’s to mid-40. The shift in winds will signal a significant shift towards colder temperatures. On Sunday sunny skies will continue to dominate the region, however high temperatures will only reach into the upper 50’s and low 60’s in the warmer areas of the forecast region. Winds will be primarily from the north to northeast across the area at moderate levels. Tomorrow night Oklahoma temperatures will drop into the upper 20’s to low 30’s across the southern portion of the state. In Texas mid to low 30’s will occur in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau, whereas the Plateau itself will see temperatures return back to the mid 20’s. Winds will calm but remain from the north and northeast.

Trajectory weather: Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from southern Oklahoma move very slowly northeastward then eastward towards Arkansas through central Oklahoma. The trajectory shows a disparity between the surface winds versus those at higher elevations. The higher elevations move rapidly towards the northeast similar to yesterday’s overall flow. Light to moderate winds at the surface will result in entrainment and if the air is buoyant enough to move the pollen up in the atmosphere then travel will occur from the southern Oklahoma population rapidly northeast. Tonight winds will remain moderate as the front moves through the area. Today skies will be sunny with warm conditions, high temperatures expected to be in the mid 70’s. Tomorrow skies will remain sunny but cool conditions will return with highs in the mid to low 50’s. On Sunday winds will continue from the north to northwest at light to moderate levels. Overnight, winds will calm to light and variable conditions across the southern Oklahoma juniper population.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and moderate to poor conditions tomorrow with Good conditions today but Poor conditions tomorrow for entrainment and transport. Clear skies today with warm conditions will provide good conditions for pollination. Winds will be at moderate levels from the southwest today, switching to a northerly flow overnight. Temperatures will be in the mid 70’s today but return to the lower 30’s tonight as winds switch coming out of the north to northeast. Tomorrow temperatures will cool into the 50’s across the region as northerly winds bringing colder air to the area. Sunny skies will remain across the region. Good conditions exist for pollination today and tomorrow, however, a check on the southern population trees recently, showed no pollen release currently ongoing. We wait for a clear signal of pollen dispersal from the southern Oklahoma population. Although good conditions exist today, we continue to wait for signals that will show pollination initiation. Communities in Oklahoma near the populations may be impacted with increasing juniper pollen in the atmosphere, but it should be limited as the surface winds will be moving relatively slowly. We will list today, as moderate, however we wait for better conditions and confirmation of the pollination season beginning before a more significant threat will occur.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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