The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, December 14 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. To the west the chance of rain will drop to only 20% to 30%. Tonight, the chance of showers will continue but decrease to the east with the overall region being from 20% to 30% chance of precipitation. Today’s high temperature across the region will be mild with high temperatures in the mid 60’s to the north and in the 70’s in San Antonio. Winds across the region will be moderate from the south with gust up around 20 m.p.h., especially towards the west. Tonight similar conditions will continue with a moderate chance of showers across the region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, whereas to the west temperatures will be more in the mid to low 40’s. Winds will continue to be from the south, whereas they will be turning to the west coming from the west tonight and into tomorrow. Across Oklahoma similar temperatures will occur as those in Texas. The chance of precipitation will be heightened from Dallas northward. Tonight, rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to the north but will start to clear into the early morning. Winds across the region will remain from the south at moderate levels.

Tomorrow cloudy and partly cloudy conditions will occur across central Texas from east to west. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain for eastern areas of the Edwards Plateau whereas to the west skies will become partly cloudy and no chance of precipitation. Temperatures across the area will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Winds will be from the west at moderate levels. To the north, partly sunny to sunny conditions will occur from Dallas into Oklahoma. Winds will be from the southwest at moderate levels into the evening. Overnight, partly cloudy conditions will return and low temperatures will be in the 40’s to 50’s across Oklahoma into northern Texas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move to the north on persistent southerly winds. Cloudy skies will occur across the region with moderate daytime temperatures reaching into the 60’s. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant today and tomorrow along a major portion of its travel northward. However, the rain across the region should have washed most pollen from the atmosphere. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 40s with winds remaining from the south but calming. There is a number of indications that the trees are shedding pollen. Wet conditions today should reduce pollen release today and probably tomorrow but with drying conditions the expectations for pollination on Sunday is improving.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate tomorrow. There are good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Seasonal conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. Today and tonight, into tomorrow a significant chance of rain will occur across the region. With seasonal temperatures and moderate wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is poor today but with drying tomorrow there will be a greater chance of pollination tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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